NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	108		Excitement	10.8 [33]		MVP	Darius Garland (CLE): +23.3%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	6.3 [206]		LVP	Donovan Mitchell (CLE): -34.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Garland	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.14,0.14,0.23	0.03	0.22	0.02	21	52%	0.47	3	-0.23	8	37%	-0.05
Dean Wade	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.08	-0.00	8	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Jerome	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.03	-0.02	12	67%	0.16	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Jarrett Allen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	11	68%	0.14	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Georges Niang	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Merrill	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	39%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylon Tyson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	-0.35	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.19,-0.35	-0.04	-0.33	-0.02	21	40%	-0.23	1	-0.12	5	80%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.21	0.21	-0.00	0.21	0.01	13	56%	0.34	3	-0.13	6	67%	0.06
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	15	79%	0.41	6	-0.22	3	100%	0.02
Cam Whitmore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.08	0.04	3	50%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.02
Jalen Green	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	16	31%	-0.13	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.27	-0.27	-0.07	-0.19	0.01	15	50%	-0.11	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	27.1	15.4	27.5	2.4	40.4	137.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE -7.7%

CLE -4.7%

HOU +73.1%

CLE -17.6%

HOU +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	HOU	NBA	CLE	HOU	NBA
this game	14.2	16.0	14.4	112.5	114.7	113.1
season	13.7	14.7		120.5	114.2
opponent	14.2	14.9		109.6	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	12.9	14.9	13.3	15.8	14.2
HOU	15.9	14.5	16.7	17.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donovan Mitchell	67	66	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.58	22	-23	45	14.5	13.6	0.91	16.9	14.0	2.90
Dean Wade	61	60	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.37	12	-13	25	14.0	14.5	-0.56	16.5	15.1	1.32
Sam Merrill	44	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-1	1	14.4	14.0	0.41	16.4	15.6	0.80
Max Strus	48	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-1	1	13.5	14.9	-1.37	15.6	16.3	-0.72
Jarrett Allen	65	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-4	7	14.4	13.8	0.61	15.4	17.1	-1.71
Tristan Thompson	25	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	5	-11	13.9	14.3	-0.36	16.3	15.9	0.46
Jaylon Tyson	13	12	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.09	-13	12	-25	13.8	14.3	-0.48	9.0	17.0	-7.99
Ty Jerome	49	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-1	1	14.6	13.7	0.87	16.6	15.4	1.18
Georges Niang	41	41	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	14	-29	14.3	14.1	0.18	15.9	16.0	-0.09
Darius Garland	67	68	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.58	-8	7	-15	14.1	14.5	-0.42	15.9	16.1	-0.24

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tari Eason	42	42	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.08	21	-20	41	15.4	16.5	-1.11	13.5	14.7	-1.26
Fred VanVleet	80	81	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.39	8	-7	15	15.3	19.5	-4.14	14.0	15.1	-1.04
Alperen Sengun	58	60	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.51	3	-2	5	15.2	17.2	-2.03	14.3	14.1	0.21
Cam Whitmore	42	41	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-14	29	15.5	16.3	-0.77	14.2	14.2	0.06
Dillon Brooks	64	65	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.45	-2	3	-5	15.3	17.4	-2.09	14.4	13.6	0.80
Amen Thompson	69	70	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.58	-12	13	-25	17.1	13.0	4.10	14.1	14.4	-0.27
Jae'Sean Tate	18	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	9	-17	18.1	15.5	2.63	14.9	14.0	0.95
Steven Adams	37	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	3	-5	17.2	15.2	2.03	14.1	14.3	-0.21
Jalen Green	65	67	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.38	-19	20	-39	16.4	15.2	1.19	14.3	14.0	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.64,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.6,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 107, BKN 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.42,1	90.2%
MEM 99, LAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.76,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.55,0.58,1	89.9%
MIA 93, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.74,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.58,1	89.9%