NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	116		Excitement	7.7 [230]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +56.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	115		Comeback	1.0 [277]		LVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): -6.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.56	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.29,0.25,0.56	0.19	0.33	-0.04	21	67%	0.60	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.21	0.01	0.15	-0.04	16	55%	0.27	3	-0.06	12	83%	0.11
Buddy Hield	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.09	-0.01	11	72%	0.23	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Moses Moody	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.01	6	92%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Dennis Schroder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	11	55%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trayce Jackson-Davis	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.32	0.32	0.17	0.17	0.02	19	64%	0.32	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	9	74%	0.21	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	13	54%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Julius Randle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.02	-0.08	18	47%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	78%	0.06	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Edwards	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.03	0.06	19	57%	0.04	5	-0.11	11	91%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.5	26.3	15.5	38.2	2.8	42.3	152.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +50.0%

GSW +7.6%

GSW +3.4%

MIN -11.7%

GSW +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIN	NBA	GSW	MIN	NBA
this game	16.1	15.7	14.4	127.5	127.8	112.6
season	14.3	14.6		112.2	113.0
opponent	14.6	14.5		109.8	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	15.9	18.8	16.8	16.1
MIN	18.0	14.7	15.5	14.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Buddy Hield	53	55	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	-7	15	17.0	14.9	2.14	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Stephen Curry	74	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	2	-3	16.0	16.8	-0.76	14.8	19.0	-4.15
Moses Moody	46	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	-6	13	15.8	16.5	-0.68	16.3	15.0	1.31
Andrew Wiggins	67	66	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.46	-5	6	-11	15.9	16.7	-0.77	16.1	14.4	1.72
Kevon Looney	44	42	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.39	-3	4	-7	16.2	16.1	0.16	13.9	17.2	-3.32
Gui Santos	40	42	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	-4	9	16.2	16.1	0.19	15.7	15.7	0.02
Gary Payton II	39	37	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.31	-4	5	-9	15.3	16.8	-1.55	13.8	17.0	-3.12
Trayce Jackson-Davis	48	47	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	-1	3	15.9	16.4	-0.57	17.6	13.6	3.93
Dennis Schroder	44	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	5	-9	16.9	15.5	1.40	17.1	14.3	2.85

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	38	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-7	13	15.3	16.0	-0.67	16.6	15.8	0.79
Mike Conley	33	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.01	-3	2	-5	16.1	15.4	0.70	16.3	16.1	0.19
Julius Randle	50	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	1	-3	16.8	14.2	2.57	17.2	14.8	2.44
Naz Reid	55	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.43	8	-9	17	14.9	16.9	-2.07	16.1	16.2	-0.05
Donte DiVincenzo	75	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-1	1	15.8	15.0	0.81	16.1	16.5	-0.48
Rudy Gobert	55	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	3	-7	15.6	15.9	-0.29	15.6	17.1	-1.49
Jaden McDaniels	67	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	7	-15	15.8	15.3	0.50	15.8	17.0	-1.16
Anthony Edwards	77	79	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.53	-2	1	-3	15.4	17.6	-2.26	15.9	17.5	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.19,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.24,0.35,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 112, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.31,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.58,0	92.8%
SAC 104, BKN 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.26,0	91.9%
CHA 93, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.73,0	91.4%