NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	120		Excitement	9.6 [59]		MVP	Kyrie Irving (DAL): +66.8%
Denver Nuggets	122		Comeback	5.1 [186]		LVP	Jaden Hardy (DAL): -17.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.67	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.5,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.91,0.67	0.40	0.28	0.01	22	91%	0.69	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Naji Marshall	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.06	0.17	-0.00	9	58%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Dwight Powell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	3	70%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	13	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Daniel Gafford	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03	0.09	-0.09	0.03	9	73%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	19	55%	0.12	5	-0.19	6	67%	-0.02
Jaden Hardy	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	7	14%	-0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.39,0.45	0.45	0.18	0.26	-0.01	21	74%	0.60	4	-0.15	8	100%	0.08
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.28	0.28	0.10	0.22	0.04	11	65%	0.28	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	9	89%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	57%	0.07	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	17	46%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.14
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	25.4	15.4	29.2	2.4	33.2	133.5
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.8%

DAL -2.0%

DEN +20.0%

DEN +7.7%

DEN +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	15.0	14.4	120.0	123.2	112.3
season	14.1	13.9		115.4	117.3
opponent	14.5	14.5		113.4	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.7	12.3	15.3	15.0	14.0
DEN	13.5	13.4	16.7	16.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	31	31	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.10	4	-6	10	12.2	14.8	-2.56	15.9	14.6	1.38
Spencer Dinwiddie	45	43	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-5	8	13.6	14.2	-0.61	14.0	15.7	-1.67
Jaden Hardy	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.17	0	-2	2	12.7	14.8	-2.11	14.3	15.5	-1.23
Naji Marshall	76	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.50	8	-10	18	13.2	16.5	-3.29	15.3	13.8	1.56
Luka Doncic	83	85	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.48	5	-7	12	14.0	13.7	0.31	15.2	13.6	1.65
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	18	16	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	12	-26	17.1	13.3	3.84	12.9	15.4	-2.45
Klay Thompson	64	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	2	-6	14.4	13.2	1.11	15.4	14.3	1.10
Kyrie Irving	72	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.36	-6	4	-10	14.5	12.5	1.98	15.4	13.9	1.52
Daniel Gafford	69	68	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.54	-6	4	-10	14.8	12.2	2.56	14.6	15.9	-1.38

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	75	78	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.49	13	-11	24	15.0	15.1	-0.12	14.7	11.3	3.45
Jamal Murray	76	77	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.33	15	-13	28	15.1	14.5	0.61	14.9	10.9	3.96
Christian Braun	71	72	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.42	8	-6	14	14.6	16.0	-1.36	14.3	13.1	1.23
Peyton Watson	81	80	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.48	3	-1	4	15.0	15.2	-0.22	14.4	12.0	2.39
Michael Porter Jr.	74	76	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	1	0	15.6	13.3	2.23	13.4	15.7	-2.25
Julian Strawther	50	53	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.08	-6	8	-14	14.7	15.3	-0.59	13.2	14.8	-1.64
Russell Westbrook	44	42	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.22	-13	15	-28	14.8	15.1	-0.31	12.7	14.8	-2.11
Zeke Nnaji	24	22	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.04	-11	13	-24	15.1	15.0	0.12	11.3	14.7	-3.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.46,0.43,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 102, BKN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.28,1	92.0%
ORL 114, OKC 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.37,0.33,0.28,1	90.9%
NYK 93, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.43,0.27,0.36,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	90.8%