NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	128		Excitement	11.6 [19]		MVP	Chris Boucher (TOR): +32.0%
Toronto Raptors	131		Comeback	1.2 [311]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): -22.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.03,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.02	0.28	-0.01	10	61%	0.48	3	-0.17	8	87%	0.04
Keon Ellis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keegan Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.01	0.04	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.11	-0.15	0.00	16	66%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.15,-0.24,-0.18,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.03,-0.14,-0.07	-0.00	-0.08	-0.01	27	54%	0.11	6	-0.18	7	100%	0.08
De'Aaron Fox	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.22	-0.08	-0.11	0.03	22	44%	0.03	5	-0.26	10	80%	0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.22	0.10	-0.00	13	83%	0.32	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Gradey Dick	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.26	0.26	0.01	0.25	-0.00	17	54%	0.35	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.07
Ochai Agbaji	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.21	0.06	0.05	12	92%	0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamison Battle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.17,0,-0.08,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.03	26	49%	0.17	2	-0.12	11	73%	-0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	8	65%	0.09	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.02
Jonathan Mogbo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	60%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	28.5	34.6	28.5	1.8	36.4	2.3	15.2	178.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	2.4	15.6	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +70.5%

SAC -23.5%

SAC -12.8%

TOR +14.2%

TOR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	13.6	13.2	14.4	106.7	112.0	113.1
season	14.3	13.9		115.1	109.0
opponent	14.6	14.6		113.0	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	13.6	13.6	13.2	12.8	16.4	13.6
TOR	13.5	11.7	13.0	14.9	13.6	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	39	34	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.26	-8	5	-13	13.7	13.5	0.12	12.1	13.7	-1.63
Jordan McLaughlin	13	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-4	5	13.6	13.6	0.04	9.6	13.7	-4.10
Keegan Murray	89	86	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.37	12	-15	27	13.1	15.1	-2.04	13.5	12.6	0.86
DeMar DeRozan	98	93	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.39	6	-9	15	13.4	14.3	-0.84	13.6	12.0	1.52
Malik Monk	81	82	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-6	9	13.8	13.2	0.64	14.0	11.5	2.51
Domantas Sabonis	98	95	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.39	2	-5	7	13.5	14.0	-0.57	13.3	13.2	0.03
De'Aaron Fox	99	95	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	2	-7	13.4	14.5	-1.08	13.4	12.6	0.75
Trey Lyles	37	38	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.36	-16	13	-29	15.1	12.9	2.24	12.9	13.4	-0.52
Keon Ellis	56	58	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.49	-13	10	-23	14.3	12.9	1.38	12.9	13.5	-0.59

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Boucher	51	52	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.44	13	-10	23	14.2	12.5	1.72	14.5	12.9	1.58
RJ Barrett	89	92	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.39	5	-2	7	12.8	14.6	-1.74	13.6	13.5	0.11
Jonathan Mogbo	34	37	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.03	17	-14	31	12.9	13.4	-0.56	14.4	13.2	1.15
Davion Mitchell	84	87	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	3	-3	12.7	14.5	-1.81	13.2	14.6	-1.41
Ochai Agbaji	81	83	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	2	-1	12.7	14.5	-1.81	13.6	13.6	-0.02
Gradey Dick	85	87	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	6	-9	13.0	14.0	-1.08	13.4	14.1	-0.66
Jamison Battle	32	33	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	-3	9	14.0	13.0	1.08	14.1	13.4	0.66
Ja'Kobe Walter	23	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	9	-15	14.5	12.9	1.53	12.9	13.7	-0.83
Jamal Shead	30	30	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	5	-7	14.8	12.7	2.09	13.7	13.6	0.11
Jakob Poeltl	76	77	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.15	-16	19	-35	13.4	12.9	0.53	13.2	14.3	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.6,0.79,0.87,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.93,0.79,0.69,0.96,0.46,0.67,0.79,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 84, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.91,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.59,1	91.1%
HOU 101, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.84,1	89.6%
CHI 85, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.78,0.57,0.83,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.78,0.83,1	89.3%