NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	117		Excitement	5.9 [334]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +24.6%
Boston Celtics	120		Comeback	1.2 [529]		LVP	Darius Garland (CLE): -26.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Porter Jr.	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.06	0.00	8	94%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Allen	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.07	0.01	6	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Mobley	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.03	13	71%	0.13	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Donovan Mitchell	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06	0.09	0.02	0.05	29	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Georges Niang	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	69%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Merrill	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Jerome	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	5	83%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Darius Garland	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.24	-0.06	-0.04	21	18%	-0.23	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.10	-0.02	22	65%	0.34	4	-0.09	7	71%	0.01
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.08	0.02	12	76%	0.21	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.03	0.03	11	83%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	9	72%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	42%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	17	47%	0.03	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	25.7	15.8	26.3	3.4	37.5	136.6
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +55.8%

BOS +0.5%

BOS +2.8%

CLE -10.4%

BOS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	BOS	NBA	CLE	BOS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	14.4	120.6	126.3	112.3
season	13.8	15.0		121.2	118.1
opponent	14.3	14.8		109.1	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.8	16.0	13.6	13.4	14.4
BOS	14.5	16.8	15.2	16.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Porter Jr.	48	45	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.25	12	-15	27	14.7	14.1	0.63	18.1	13.4	4.69
Georges Niang	56	56	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.44	15	-18	33	14.4	14.5	-0.13	16.4	14.5	1.84
Ty Jerome	56	55	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.44	12	-15	27	13.6	15.5	-1.95	15.7	15.4	0.35
Sam Merrill	38	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	7	-17	15.2	13.9	1.31	15.4	15.7	-0.28
Evan Mobley	79	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	2	-7	13.8	17.1	-3.25	15.6	15.7	-0.15
Jarrett Allen	59	57	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.09	-16	13	-29	15.3	13.1	2.19	14.9	16.7	-1.76
Darius Garland	65	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.38	-9	6	-15	14.2	14.9	-0.78	14.6	17.8	-3.26
Donovan Mitchell	84	81	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	11	-25	14.6	13.1	1.54	15.0	18.9	-3.82

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	66	66	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.23	18	-15	33	14.7	17.8	-3.11	14.5	14.3	0.23
Derrick White	84	87	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.24	17	-14	31	15.4	17.3	-1.89	14.6	12.9	1.69
Jaylen Brown	75	77	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.23	17	-14	31	15.5	16.0	-0.57	14.6	13.7	0.90
Jayson Tatum	77	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.40	2	1	1	14.7	19.4	-4.67	14.1	15.9	-1.88
Jrue Holiday	61	59	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	0	3	14.0	18.6	-4.61	14.1	14.9	-0.79
Payton Pritchard	45	48	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.25	-14	17	-31	18.2	13.2	5.02	14.5	14.3	0.13
Sam Hauser	38	38	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.19	-13	16	-29	17.6	14.2	3.39	14.8	14.2	0.58
Neemias Queta	29	31	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.18	-15	18	-33	17.8	14.7	3.11	14.3	14.5	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.79,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.9,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
NYK 117, SAC 122	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.99,0.96,1	93.0%
ATL 93, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.65,0.79,0.73,0.79,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%