NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	131		Excitement	7.9 [287]		MVP	Tyrese Maxey (PHI): +33.1%
Washington Wizards	126		Comeback	2.9 [752]		LVP	Deni Avdija (WAS): -14.6%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Maxey	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.12	0.22	0.01	20	59%	0.33	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Joel Embiid	0.30	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.3	0.21	0.12	0.03	29	70%	0.47	6	-0.18	13	85%	0.02
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.14	-0.00	8	71%	0.23	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
De'Anthony Melton	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11	0.12	0.03	0.03	10	70%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	4	60%	0.11	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.04
Paul Reed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Covington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris Sr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	7	36%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	9	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.12	0.03	10	82%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.07	0.00	7	100%	0.24	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.06	0.02	11	83%	0.23	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	16	72%	0.23	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Bilal Coulibaly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	67%	0.13	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	16	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	54%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jared Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	10	40%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	27.5	14.8	28.3	2.4	29.5	126.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -7.9%

PHI +21.1%

PHI +28.0%

PHI +12.1%

WAS -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	WAS	NBA	PHI	WAS	NBA
this game	14.7	12.8	14.5	126.0	120.0	113.9
season	14.9	13.7		115.6	109.8
opponent	14.1	14.5		118.7	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	13.9	13.1	14.0	18.1	14.7
WAS	13.3	13.0	14.2	10.7	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Maxey	84	85	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.27	12	-7	19	14.5	15.9	-1.44	12.6	13.9	-1.39
Tobias Harris	78	78	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-5	15	14.4	15.7	-1.32	12.6	13.6	-1.08
Joel Embiid	84	85	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-3	11	14.0	17.9	-3.97	13.0	12.0	0.96
De'Anthony Melton	60	61	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.09	12	-7	19	14.1	15.6	-1.47	13.0	12.6	0.33
Nicolas Batum	72	72	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	-2	9	14.2	15.8	-1.59	12.9	12.8	0.10
Kelly Oubre Jr.	40	39	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	8	-11	16.0	13.9	2.13	13.2	12.6	0.60
Patrick Beverley	44	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	12	-19	15.3	14.3	0.96	12.5	13.1	-0.59
Paul Reed	20	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	8	-11	17.9	14.0	3.97	12.0	13.0	-0.96
Robert Covington	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	15.4	14.7	0.69	14.6	12.7	1.94
Marcus Morris Sr.	30	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	13	-21	16.1	14.2	1.86	13.4	12.6	0.88

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	13	12	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.03	6	-11	17	13.8	12.7	1.07	16.3	14.5	1.80
Jared Butler	28	29	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-9	13	11.8	13.2	-1.42	16.2	14.2	1.99
Deni Avdija	68	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-11	17	11.8	14.8	-3.02	15.4	13.4	2.02
Danilo Gallinari	38	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-4	3	12.9	12.8	0.10	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Corey Kispert	53	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.45	6	-11	17	12.5	13.2	-0.64	16.1	13.4	2.67
Bilal Coulibaly	58	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	2	-9	14.0	11.4	2.66	14.6	14.9	-0.20
Daniel Gafford	50	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	3	-11	12.8	12.9	-0.09	14.3	15.2	-0.91
Jordan Poole	71	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	5	-15	13.2	12.1	1.05	14.0	16.4	-2.40
Tyus Jones	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	4	-13	12.7	13.1	-0.34	14.3	15.6	-1.30
Kyle Kuzma	75	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.18	-12	7	-19	13.1	12.1	0.97	14.1	16.3	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.3,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 85, HOU 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.02,0	92.8%
ATL 118, TOR 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.05,0.01,0,0	92.5%
SEA 109, ORL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.02,0	92.5%