NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	118		Excitement	6.8 [460]		MVP	Maurice Evans (ATL): +26.8%
Toronto Raptors	110		Comeback	2.9 [457]		LVP	Anthony Parker (TOR): -6.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.17	0.11	0.01	9	94%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.09	0.01	15	66%	0.23	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	-0.01	0.13	-0.04	12	46%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	4	79%	0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Al Horford	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	8	68%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	13	46%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.04	0.02	22	52%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Gardner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.08	0.05	12	84%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.02	10	64%	0.19	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.05
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	90%	0.20	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	11	70%	0.14	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.03	14	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	44%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Patrick O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Roko Leni Ukic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	10	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	32.2	16.4	24.0	2.4	30.6	131.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +24.5%

TOR -4.1%

ATL +5.3%

ATL +22.6%

ATL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.5	129.7	123.6	106.4
season	15.8	15.1		106.7	105.0
opponent	15.6	16.1		108.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.5	14.8	15.6	17.7	16.1
TOR	16.3	16.5	16.5	14.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	89	86	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-2	12	16.0	19.5	-3.46	16.0	12.3	3.67
Joe Johnson	76	75	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-1	10	16.0	16.6	-0.57	15.3	19.0	-3.71
Ronald Murray	53	52	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	1	6	16.8	15.2	1.52	15.4	16.5	-1.04
Maurice Evans	67	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	3	2	16.0	16.4	-0.35	17.1	12.5	4.57
Mike Bibby	66	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	0	8	15.7	17.2	-1.54	15.6	16.5	-0.88
Al Horford	61	60	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	8	-8	16.2	15.9	0.38	15.7	16.3	-0.64
Zaza Pachulia	31	31	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	1	6	15.9	16.2	-0.28	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Mario West	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	11.0	16.2	-5.18	7.0	16.0	-8.98
Thomas Gardner	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	11.0	16.2	-5.18	7.0	16.0	-8.98
Acie Law	10	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.00	-6	14	-20	18.4	15.8	2.56	18.4	15.5	2.84

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	13	12	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.00	4	-12	16	16.1	15.8	0.23	14.1	16.4	-2.35
Joey Graham	26	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-10	12	16.4	15.7	0.77	16.1	16.1	-0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.05	-3	-5	2	19.1	15.5	3.60	14.8	16.3	-1.49
Patrick O'Bryant	29	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-9	10	16.1	15.7	0.39	16.8	15.8	1.06
Jason Kapono	34	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-7	6	17.0	15.2	1.87	15.7	16.4	-0.61
Jose Calderon	66	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-7	6	15.7	16.4	-0.69	16.0	16.3	-0.27
Anthony Parker	58	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	0	-8	15.3	16.9	-1.53	16.3	15.8	0.43
Quincy Douby	16	18	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	0	-8	14.9	16.1	-1.22	16.7	16.0	0.68
Andrea Bargnani	54	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-2	-4	15.4	16.6	-1.19	16.6	15.4	1.17
Shawn Marion	68	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.15	-10	2	-12	15.9	15.7	0.27	15.9	16.8	-0.93
Chris Bosh	72	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	2	-12	15.7	16.6	-0.95	16.2	15.9	0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 84, POR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.08,0	93.7%
CHH 91, ATL 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.22,0.1,0.04,0,0,0	93.3%
SEA 84, CHH 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	92.8%