NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	120		Excitement	7.1 [417]		MVP	Devonte' Graham (SAS): +59.5%
San Antonio Spurs	121		Comeback	77.1 [9]		LVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): -16.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.19	0.08	-0.01	26	65%	0.30	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.11	0.01	6	108%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.02	0.03	7	69%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	0.03	14	45%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.1	0.10	-0.15	0.05	13	76%	-0.01	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,0.6	0.59	-0.03	0.65	0.02	11	46%	0.65	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.02	0.10	-0.05	11	56%	0.17	3	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	5	100%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Sidy Cissoko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	9	71%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
David Duke Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	-0.07	0.01	14	66%	0.14	2	-0.13	4	50%	-0.01
Blake Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	0.00	-0.13	0.04	27	56%	0.08	7	-0.24	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	29.6	15.3	23.7	2.3	28.1	124.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +75.2%

DEN -0.7%

SAS +8.7%

DEN -30.9%

DEN -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	13.6	14.5	118.8	122.2	113.9
season	15.0	13.9		116.2	108.6
opponent	14.3	14.6		115.2	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	12.6	16.9	17.1	15.1
SAS	14.3	13.6	13.1	13.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	46	45	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.05	9	-10	19	14.5	15.7	-1.11	15.9	11.8	4.09
Justin Holiday	31	30	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.14	3	-4	7	14.2	15.6	-1.38	14.9	13.1	1.86
Reggie Jackson	38	39	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.10	3	-4	7	14.3	15.6	-1.29	15.0	12.8	2.21
Peyton Watson	39	38	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.14	-2	1	-3	14.6	15.5	-0.91	15.1	12.7	2.43
Zeke Nnaji	21	21	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-1	1	13.3	15.6	-2.29	14.3	13.4	0.88
Nikola Jokic	80	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.54	-1	0	-1	15.6	13.3	2.29	13.4	14.3	-0.88
Aaron Gordon	62	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.61	1	-2	3	15.5	14.6	0.91	12.7	15.1	-2.43
Jamal Murray	63	60	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.57	-4	3	-7	15.6	14.3	1.29	12.8	15.0	-2.21
Michael Porter Jr.	63	62	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.56	-7	6	-13	15.6	14.4	1.17	12.6	15.4	-2.78
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	62	61	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.57	-7	6	-13	15.6	14.4	1.24	12.4	15.6	-3.20

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tre Jones	81	83	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-16	33	12.7	17.7	-4.93	15.5	13.7	1.80
Julian Champagnie	79	79	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-10	21	13.2	15.4	-2.27	15.4	14.3	1.12
Sandro Mamukelashvili	65	64	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.65	-1	2	-3	13.6	13.8	-0.20	15.1	15.2	-0.02
Devonte' Graham	61	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-5	11	14.6	12.1	2.57	15.6	14.4	1.20
Victor Wembanyama	79	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.70	-11	12	-23	13.4	14.6	-1.27	14.6	17.2	-2.62
Sidy Cissoko	32	35	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.18	14	-13	27	13.1	13.9	-0.85	16.7	14.3	2.35
David Duke Jr.	17	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.08	1	0	1	12.6	13.8	-1.19	15.8	15.0	0.77
Zach Collins	40	45	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	5	-9	15.1	12.6	2.54	14.7	15.5	-0.79
Blake Wesley	41	41	-0.57	1.07	-1.63	0.26	-28	29	-57	14.8	12.8	1.99	13.4	16.4	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.13,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.25,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.16,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.13,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.09,1	92.4%
CLE 92, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.26,1	92.2%
NJN 93, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.31,1	91.4%