NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	8.4 [208]		MVP	Kyrie Irving (DAL): +49.6%
Sacramento Kings	103		Comeback	8.5 [142]		LVP	Domantas Sabonis (SAC): -22.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.50	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.5,0.5	0.22	0.29	0.02	16	79%	0.55	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Maxi Kleber	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	2	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Exum	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,-0.08,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	6	57%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gafford	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Dereck Lively II	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.03	7	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	7	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Washington	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	10	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.04	-0.07	0.03	14	62%	0.06	5	-0.13	14	71%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kessler Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.06	0.00	3	150%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.27,0.17,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	11	55%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.03,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.14	-0.00	22	50%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.16	0.00	-0.14	0.02	19	49%	0.04	3	-0.20	3	100%	0.02
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.15	-0.01	12	46%	-0.09	4	-0.13	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.0	25.2	15.4	29.2	2.0	33.2	134.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.1%

DAL +6.8%

SAC -16.4%

DAL +17.8%

SAC -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.4	15.1	14.5	113.8	108.4	113.9
season	14.2	14.0		116.2	115.6
opponent	14.8	14.4		113.6	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.3	15.0	15.3	15.9	15.4
SAC	14.7	13.8	12.9	20.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	46	46	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.52	4	0	4	15.1	15.7	-0.60	16.2	14.1	2.03
Luka Doncic	81	81	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-2	8	15.4	15.3	0.08	15.1	14.9	0.21
Kyrie Irving	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-4	12	15.4	15.3	0.14	15.0	15.5	-0.56
P.J. Washington	66	65	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.57	-3	7	-10	15.5	15.0	0.58	15.1	15.1	0.01
Dante Exum	45	45	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.47	-3	7	-10	15.6	15.2	0.35	15.3	14.9	0.35
Derrick Jones Jr.	42	43	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	0	4	15.4	15.4	-0.03	15.2	15.0	0.15
Maxi Kleber	30	31	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.12	8	-4	12	14.2	15.9	-1.77	14.7	15.3	-0.64
Dereck Lively II	46	48	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.21	-1	5	-6	16.2	14.6	1.65	14.4	15.9	-1.48
Tim Hardaway Jr.	39	41	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.16	-3	7	-10	15.1	15.6	-0.46	15.0	15.2	-0.23

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Len	20	20	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.09	0	-4	4	18.6	14.2	4.43	15.3	15.4	-0.03
Davion Mitchell	38	35	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-5	6	16.3	14.3	2.02	15.2	15.5	-0.23
Malik Monk	3	3	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-6	8	13.7	15.2	-1.49	15.0	15.4	-0.38
Chris Duarte	14	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	-2	0	19.0	14.4	4.57	14.8	15.5	-0.61
Keon Ellis	77	76	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-4	4	15.0	15.7	-0.76	15.0	16.8	-1.74
Kessler Edwards	21	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	4	-12	17.0	14.6	2.43	15.4	15.4	0.04
De'Aaron Fox	78	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	14.9	16.1	-1.16	15.6	14.4	1.13
Harrison Barnes	79	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	14.3	19.0	-4.68	15.6	14.2	1.39
Keegan Murray	71	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.48	-3	-1	-2	14.3	17.6	-3.32	15.4	15.1	0.31
Domantas Sabonis	74	74	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.50	-3	-1	-2	14.3	17.8	-3.47	15.4	15.3	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.77,0.66,0.73,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.71,0.76,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.45,0.37,0.55,0.72,0	92.5%
IND 95, NOP 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.65,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.77,0.42,0	91.7%
MIN 94, NOH 89	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.76,0.87,0.79,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.72,0.55,0.42,0	91.1%