NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	7.9 [297]		MVP	Terry Rozier (MIA): +68.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	104		Comeback	7.6 [163]		LVP	Caleb Martin (MIA): -9.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.69	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.36,0.69	0.13	0.55	0.00	16	69%	0.74	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.04
Jimmy Butler	0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.25	0.14	0.13	0.02	19	67%	0.30	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Orlando Robinson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	89%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.02	5	64%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	11	40%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Allen	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.32	0.32	0.16	0.17	0.01	13	78%	0.39	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.12	0.04	15	55%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.05
Darius Garland	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	18	54%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Sam Merrill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	0.02	9	62%	0.15	5	-0.11	8	87%	0.05
Isaac Okoro	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris Sr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	27.6	14.7	28.0	1.8	36.3	134.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.4%

CLE -5.7%

CLE -7.8%

MIA +22.5%

MIA +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	16.8	15.6	14.5	121.6	115.6	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		112.3	113.0
opponent	14.7	14.8		111.3	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	13.6	18.4	18.4	16.8
CLE	16.2	15.2	14.3	16.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	67	71	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.44	10	-7	17	16.2	18.5	-2.25	15.4	16.4	-0.96
Caleb Martin	58	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	1	1	16.9	16.5	0.35	16.4	14.2	2.21
Delon Wright	28	30	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	-6	15	15.3	17.4	-2.16	16.5	15.2	1.28
Nikola Jovic	62	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	0	3	15.9	18.8	-2.90	15.8	15.2	0.59
Orlando Robinson	20	20	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	-1	5	20.9	15.5	5.42	17.7	15.0	2.69
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	56	55	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.37	-7	10	-17	17.7	15.1	2.57	15.8	15.3	0.44
Thomas Bryant	30	31	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	-3	9	15.6	17.4	-1.76	14.1	16.4	-2.26
Terry Rozier	60	62	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.32	-6	9	-15	17.4	15.3	2.16	15.0	16.9	-1.91
Patty Mills	48	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	4	-5	17.4	15.9	1.49	14.2	17.3	-3.13
Haywood Highsmith	11	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	8	-13	12.1	17.4	-5.34	19.0	15.2	3.81

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Morris Sr.	29	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-1	-1	16.0	15.4	0.57	17.4	16.5	0.87
Craig Porter Jr.	8	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	4	-11	17.2	15.5	1.80	11.0	17.4	-6.42
Tristan Thompson	17	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	3	-9	17.4	15.2	2.15	16.7	16.8	-0.11
Isaac Okoro	70	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-5	7	15.7	15.4	0.27	17.4	14.4	3.05
Sam Merrill	37	38	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-4	5	16.6	14.9	1.76	16.7	16.8	-0.09
Jarrett Allen	75	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-6	9	14.8	19.6	-4.79	16.8	16.7	0.11
Georges Niang	67	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-3	3	15.5	15.9	-0.41	16.5	17.4	-0.85
Darius Garland	74	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-6	9	15.8	14.8	0.97	17.4	13.2	4.22
Caris LeVert	73	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.26	-9	6	-15	15.0	18.1	-3.09	16.1	19.1	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.39,0.42,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.71,0.42,0	91.1%
PHI 118, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.34,0.33,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.58,0	90.1%
MEM 71, CHA 69	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.16,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.58,0	89.6%