NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	6.7 [482]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (PHI): +26.6%
Philadelphia 76ers	98		Comeback	1.4 [701]		LVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): -19.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	21	47%	0.12	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Thomas Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.10	-0.07	0.04	10	91%	0.10	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Delon Wright	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	10%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	14	45%	0.04	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.04
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.08	-0.11	0.01	13	32%	-0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.15	-0.01	12	64%	0.27	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	19	58%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	10	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	5	30%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
KJ Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.08	-0.14	0.04	24	57%	0.04	3	-0.14	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	27.9	15.8	28.5	3.4	32.5	137.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +44.8%

PHI +0.8%

PHI +0.6%

PHI +0.1%

PHI +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	14.0	15.8	14.5	92.9	103.2	113.9
season	14.9	14.9		112.3	115.6
opponent	14.5	14.8		112.6	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	12.4	16.8	13.5	14.0
PHI	15.5	15.4	16.0	16.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Bryant	35	32	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.01	12	-19	31	12.8	14.7	-1.93	15.6	16.0	-0.36
Delon Wright	32	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-5	3	14.0	14.1	-0.06	16.6	15.5	1.09
Patty Mills	39	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.31	5	-12	17	15.6	13.0	2.62	17.1	14.9	2.18
Terry Rozier	72	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-10	13	13.4	15.9	-2.56	15.2	17.6	-2.40
Caleb Martin	70	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-7	7	14.1	14.0	0.06	16.5	14.2	2.30
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	74	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	-5	3	13.5	15.8	-2.37	15.3	17.4	-2.18
Duncan Robinson	49	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	7	-21	14.6	13.5	1.14	15.5	16.2	-0.75
Haywood Highsmith	56	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.01	-18	11	-29	14.1	14.0	0.11	15.6	16.2	-0.60
Bam Adebayo	63	63	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.28	-19	12	-31	14.7	12.8	1.93	16.0	15.6	0.36

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Maxey	79	81	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.12	22	-15	37	16.1	14.4	1.68	14.7	11.1	3.61
Kyle Lowry	71	72	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	1	5	15.5	16.7	-1.17	14.3	13.2	1.15
Nicolas Batum	76	76	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.22	11	-4	15	15.8	16.1	-0.34	14.2	13.4	0.81
Kelly Oubre Jr.	78	82	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	4	-1	14.9	19.9	-5.01	13.7	16.0	-2.34
Paul Reed	41	42	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	7	-7	17.4	14.6	2.79	14.4	13.7	0.68
Mo Bamba	38	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	14.6	16.7	-2.13	14.1	14.0	0.10
KJ Martin	13	13	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	6	-5	16.0	15.8	0.20	15.6	13.8	1.82
Cameron Payne	31	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	13	-19	16.6	15.5	1.16	13.2	14.5	-1.34
Buddy Hield	48	52	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.17	-2	9	-11	16.5	15.2	1.31	12.8	15.5	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.77,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.62,0.78,0.91,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 94, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.78,0.81,0.66,0.69,0.89,0.93,0.98,1	93.8%
DET 91, MIN 97	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.77,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.92,1	92.3%
POR 80, SAS 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.7,0.65,0.78,0.9,0.83,0.91,0.73,1	92.1%