NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	6.7 [487]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +30.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Comeback	6.5 [445]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -25.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.19	0.07	-0.00	13	78%	0.26	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.00	7	93%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	16	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Nikola Jovic	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	58%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	14	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	10	35%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.17	-0.08	0.01	9	23%	-0.14	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.16	0.02	25	61%	0.33	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.05
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.10	0.00	5	70%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	9	39%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	12	58%	0.13	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	61%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.7	25.4	14.7	26.2	2.3	31.4	127.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +20.6%

OKC +5.2%

OKC +11.7%

OKC +6.5%

OKC +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	14.5	106.4	111.5	113.9
season	14.9	13.9		112.3	117.1
opponent	14.7	14.8		109.7	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	15.7	17.5	16.7	15.6
OKC	14.3	14.3	13.8	16.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	29	32	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.16	13	-20	33	14.8	15.9	-1.10	15.6	14.3	1.23
Nikola Jovic	60	61	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-11	15	15.1	16.4	-1.25	14.7	14.8	-0.10
Haywood Highsmith	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-3	-1	18.9	15.2	3.65	13.8	14.8	-1.05
Caleb Martin	58	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-11	15	15.3	16.0	-0.67	15.6	13.4	2.14
Jimmy Butler	72	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-10	13	15.2	16.8	-1.61	14.8	14.4	0.46
Duncan Robinson	55	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	15.6	15.5	0.08	14.1	15.6	-1.43
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	62	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	2	-11	15.8	15.1	0.70	15.2	14.0	1.16
Bam Adebayo	61	62	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.10	-18	11	-29	15.8	15.2	0.57	14.1	15.9	-1.72
Terry Rozier	64	65	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.14	-20	13	-33	16.1	14.5	1.59	14.3	15.6	-1.24

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	71	68	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.28	17	-10	27	14.5	15.3	-0.73	15.8	15.0	0.86
Luguentz Dort	66	65	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.20	19	-12	31	14.3	15.6	-1.25	15.9	15.0	0.90
Isaiah Joe	37	35	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-7	21	14.9	14.7	0.20	16.2	15.2	0.98
Gordon Hayward	35	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	-4	15	14.1	15.1	-0.98	16.1	15.3	0.83
Jaylin Williams	31	33	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	4	-1	15.6	14.3	1.34	16.4	15.1	1.29
Chet Holmgren	62	59	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	8	-9	14.7	14.9	-0.18	15.0	16.6	-1.66
Jalen Williams	61	62	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.13	-2	9	-11	14.5	15.1	-0.59	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Aaron Wiggins	37	38	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	12	-17	15.6	14.2	1.44	16.4	15.0	1.40
Josh Giddey	49	48	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	14	-21	14.8	14.7	0.03	14.8	16.4	-1.54
Cason Wallace	31	28	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.16	-14	21	-35	15.1	14.6	0.58	14.1	16.2	-2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.33,0.39,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.62,0.71,0.59,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 93, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.77,0.69,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%
PHX 99, UTA 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.97,1	92.2%
BOS 85, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.85,0.97,0.95,1	91.8%