NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	110		Excitement	7.6 [353]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +21.8%
Miami Heat	118		Comeback	1.5 [1085]		LVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): -9.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Duren	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.05	0.00	5	100%	0.21	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
Simone Fontecchio	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	16	63%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Isaiah Stewart	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	9	65%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Wiseman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Evan Fournier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	10	33%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Sasser	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Ivey	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.01,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	15	46%	0.04	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Cade Cunningham	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.06	0.05	20	53%	-0.01	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.17	0.07	13	68%	0.27	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.06
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.03	11	75%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	7	69%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.03	0.00	9	75%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	17	49%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	17	50%	0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	25.1	16.4	24.7	2.5	33.5	129.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.3%

DET -9.6%

DET -5.9%

MIA +17.2%

MIA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.9	14.5	114.6	124.2	113.9
season	14.2	14.9		108.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	14.2	16.6	15.0	15.2
MIA	13.6	15.8	15.4	15.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	30	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-10	12	14.4	15.6	-1.22	14.5	15.1	-0.62
James Wiseman	34	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-8	8	14.2	15.8	-1.65	15.4	14.7	0.69
Marcus Sasser	28	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-6	4	15.4	15.2	0.27	15.4	14.7	0.64
Simone Fontecchio	57	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-5	2	15.0	15.6	-0.55	15.9	13.6	2.29
Cade Cunningham	68	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-2	-4	15.2	15.4	-0.27	14.7	15.4	-0.64
Ausar Thompson	68	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	0	-8	15.6	14.4	1.25	14.9	15.0	-0.12
Jaden Ivey	59	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	15.3	15.2	0.13	14.5	15.5	-0.99
Isaiah Stewart	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	3	-14	15.4	14.8	0.61	14.7	15.6	-0.94
Jalen Duren	62	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	0	-8	15.8	14.2	1.65	14.7	15.4	-0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	53	55	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	0	8	15.3	14.4	0.92	15.0	15.6	-0.60
Bam Adebayo	69	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	0	8	14.7	15.4	-0.70	15.3	15.1	0.18
Terry Rozier	63	62	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	2	4	14.7	15.4	-0.69	15.3	15.1	0.28
Duncan Robinson	73	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-1	10	14.3	17.0	-2.71	15.8	13.6	2.20
Jimmy Butler	75	75	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	7	-6	14.9	15.0	-0.11	14.8	16.7	-1.83
Nikola Jovic	43	45	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	0	8	13.5	16.1	-2.52	15.4	15.1	0.30
Haywood Highsmith	23	23	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	6	-4	16.3	14.5	1.77	14.4	15.5	-1.12
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	50	51	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	10	-12	16.3	13.4	2.92	15.5	15.0	0.49
Orlando Robinson	15	16	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	6	-4	15.1	14.9	0.26	15.3	15.2	0.09
Thomas Bryant	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	10	-12	15.8	14.8	1.02	14.8	15.3	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.61,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.94,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, BKN 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.52,0.64,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.95,0.85,1	93.4%
LAC 103, PHX 104	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.64,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.84,1	93.3%
DET 91, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	92.9%