NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	6.5 [527]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +27.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	96		Comeback	4.7 [558]		LVP	Kris Murray (POR): -17.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.10	-0.04	12	67%	0.27	1	-0.00	9	78%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.01	8	89%	0.24	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.09	-0.01	14	61%	0.24	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Jovic	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.01	5	67%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Kevin Love	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Caleb Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	52%	0.02	6	-0.14	7	43%	-0.07

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toumani Camara	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	12	63%	0.17	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Jabari Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	4	58%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	15	63%	0.10	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Matisse Thybulle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ashton Hagans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dalano Banton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duop Reath	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.07	0.05	26	48%	-0.03	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Kris Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.05	-0.03	6	0%	-0.12	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	25.0	14.8	32.2	1.8	30.0	132.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +73.2%

MIA +6.1%

POR -19.0%

POR -10.3%

POR -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	14.5	112.8	103.2	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		112.3	106.9
opponent	14.5	14.8		116.2	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.9	14.1	13.2	16.0	15.3
POR	11.6	16.6	19.0	15.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	63	61	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.28	8	2	6	14.7	16.6	-1.93	14.6	17.1	-2.45
Duncan Robinson	70	68	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	3	4	15.0	16.1	-1.08	15.0	16.8	-1.75
Bam Adebayo	69	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	6	-2	14.4	17.8	-3.33	15.1	16.6	-1.53
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.12	10	0	10	15.8	14.7	1.03	16.8	13.7	3.13
Caleb Martin	52	51	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	3	4	16.0	14.5	1.52	15.8	15.1	0.62
Nikola Jovic	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	8	-6	15.0	15.5	-0.43	14.4	16.0	-1.69
Jimmy Butler	65	65	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	5	0	15.2	15.5	-0.29	15.1	16.4	-1.30
Kevin Love	25	25	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	4	2	17.8	14.4	3.33	16.6	15.1	1.53
Haywood Highsmith	11	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	9	-8	12.9	15.6	-2.73	17.4	15.2	2.13
Delon Wright	30	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	10	-10	16.7	14.7	2.03	16.7	14.9	1.84

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	39	39	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.10	14	-24	38	14.3	16.4	-2.11	14.8	15.7	-0.90
Toumani Camara	63	64	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.17	13	-23	36	15.6	15.3	0.22	15.5	15.0	0.52
Dalano Banton	8	8	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.06	-2	-8	6	12.9	15.7	-2.85	22.4	14.7	7.71
Kris Murray	59	62	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-11	12	15.5	15.5	-0.03	14.3	17.3	-3.07
Duop Reath	20	21	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	0	-10	17.4	14.9	2.50	18.9	14.3	4.62
Ashton Hagans	21	20	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-2	-6	16.3	15.2	1.10	15.8	15.2	0.67
Jabari Walker	38	37	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.01	-18	8	-26	15.9	15.2	0.74	14.2	16.0	-1.82
Matisse Thybulle	59	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	3	-16	15.4	15.6	-0.12	15.7	14.6	1.10
Jerami Grant	77	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.16	-15	5	-20	15.4	16.0	-0.62	15.6	14.1	1.51
Anfernee Simons	81	83	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.29	-12	2	-14	15.5	15.3	0.17	14.5	21.8	-7.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 95, UTA 83	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.1%
IND 92, GSW 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.19,0.14,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0	92.5%
MEM 103, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.04,0,0,0	92.4%