NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	114		Excitement	8.3 [240]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (CHI): +25.6%
New Orleans Pelicans	106		Comeback	7.2 [116]		LVP	Brandon Ingram (NOP): -19.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.26	0.11	0.13	-0.01	13	63%	0.32	2	-0.06	12	83%	0.05
Ayo Dosunmu	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	15	66%	0.16	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	54%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Alex Caruso	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	13	46%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Taylor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julian Phillips	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Coby White	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	0.02	18	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	0.03	-0.09	0.00	19	58%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dalen Terry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.01	10	68%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	15	47%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Ryan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.00	10	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	15	59%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	11	41%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	2	33%	-0.03	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	16	55%	0.06	9	-0.26	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	26.4	14.5	21.6	1.8	34.2	125.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -15.4%

CHI +20.3%

CHI +16.1%

CHI +28.0%

CHI +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOP	NBA	CHI	NOP	NBA
this game	13.7	14.7	14.5	111.8	105.0	113.9
season	14.5	14.4		113.4	114.8
opponent	14.7	15.0		111.0	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.0	13.4	13.0	15.3	13.7
NOP	15.3	16.6	14.1	12.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jevon Carter	43	42	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-7	22	12.6	14.5	-1.91	15.6	14.0	1.59
Dalen Terry	35	34	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.00	17	-9	26	11.9	14.6	-2.78	14.6	14.7	-0.16
DeMar DeRozan	83	83	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	4	0	13.8	13.3	0.46	15.0	13.2	1.86
Alex Caruso	67	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.10	9	-1	10	14.1	12.9	1.22	14.2	15.7	-1.48
Ayo Dosunmu	84	84	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	2	4	13.7	13.7	-0.04	14.2	17.2	-2.99
Andre Drummond	31	29	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	2	4	13.1	13.9	-0.85	15.7	14.3	1.40
Nikola Vucevic	71	72	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	6	-4	13.9	13.1	0.85	14.3	15.7	-1.40
Julian Phillips	5	5	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.05	3	5	-2	13.0	13.7	-0.72	9.6	15.0	-5.36
Coby White	78	76	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.36	-11	19	-30	14.7	10.4	4.28	14.5	15.3	-0.78
Terry Taylor	13	14	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.09	-11	19	-30	13.8	13.7	0.18	18.5	14.1	4.42

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	59	58	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.33	19	-27	46	14.0	15.7	-1.75	15.4	11.4	4.04
Herbert Jones	79	80	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.30	10	-18	28	14.7	14.7	0.01	14.6	10.3	4.29
Trey Murphy III	77	77	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-13	18	14.7	14.6	0.14	14.4	11.4	3.03
Zion Williamson	67	69	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-14	20	14.4	15.2	-0.77	14.5	12.0	2.49
Brandon Ingram	81	83	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-8	8	14.1	16.9	-2.75	13.8	13.4	0.39
Matt Ryan	42	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.06	-14	6	-20	16.1	13.7	2.40	12.0	14.8	-2.78
Jordan Hawkins	34	35	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	0.03	-21	13	-34	14.7	14.7	0.02	11.2	15.0	-3.74
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	26	26	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.05	-21	13	-34	13.8	15.0	-1.14	11.1	14.6	-3.45
Larry Nance Jr.	40	41	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.01	-24	16	-40	16.3	13.6	2.66	11.9	14.9	-2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.5,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.78,0.72,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 103, NJN 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.4,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.02,0	92.1%
LAL 122, LAC 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.61,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.77,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.17,0.1,0.02,0.04,0.04,0	91.8%
PHX 98, SAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.39,0.26,0.07,0.1,0.05,0	91.7%