NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

LA Clippers	103		Excitement	6.0 [604]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (LAC): +16.5%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	2.2 [756]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (LAC): -14.0%

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.06	-0.01	16	66%	0.21	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
James Harden	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	13	70%	0.24	4	-0.08	4	50%	0.01
Norman Powell	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.00	12	62%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Terance Mann	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Coffey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	2	62%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Ivica Zubac	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	13	47%	0.04	4	-0.06	6	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	9	28%	-0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.03	19	51%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	17	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	13	47%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	11	32%	-0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	4.3	23.3	14.8	26.3	2.7	40.2	137.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +47.8%

LAC +9.6%

MIA -3.9%

MIA -3.6%

LAC +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIA	NBA	LAC	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	14.6	14.5	108.4	100.0	113.9
season	14.9	14.9		116.6	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.4		111.0	114.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	15.7	16.3	17.1	13.9	15.7
MIA	13.7	15.7	16.3	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	83	83	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-2	12	15.5	17.2	-1.70	15.0	12.3	2.63
Paul George	65	66	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	1	6	14.8	17.5	-2.65	15.2	13.3	1.95
Norman Powell	59	58	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.17	9	-1	10	15.5	15.9	-0.37	13.3	16.7	-3.39
Mason Plumlee	49	49	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-3	14	16.9	14.4	2.51	15.1	14.2	0.89
Amir Coffey	47	47	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-1	10	15.1	16.2	-1.10	13.1	16.1	-2.98
Ivica Zubac	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	8	-8	15.6	15.8	-0.19	15.9	13.9	2.02
Terance Mann	36	36	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	9	-10	15.9	15.5	0.37	16.6	13.4	3.23
Kawhi Leonard	69	70	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	14	-20	15.5	16.1	-0.59	14.3	15.6	-1.26
Russell Westbrook	30	30	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.14	1	7	-6	17.5	14.8	2.65	13.5	15.2	-1.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	29	28	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-6	4	13.9	14.9	-1.01	16.8	15.2	1.61
Haywood Highsmith	51	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-5	2	15.6	13.5	2.11	16.2	15.1	1.11
Jimmy Butler	71	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-9	10	14.8	14.2	0.51	15.1	17.6	-2.48
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	50	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	1	-10	14.6	14.6	-0.02	16.6	14.6	1.98
Terry Rozier	78	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	14.7	14.5	0.12	14.8	19.7	-4.91
Caleb Martin	62	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-1	-6	13.7	16.3	-2.56	15.9	15.3	0.56
Bam Adebayo	70	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.29	-8	0	-8	14.6	14.6	0.04	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Josh Richardson	64	64	-0.58	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	0	-8	14.9	14.2	0.70	16.0	15.1	0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.23,0.13,0.12,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 111, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.32,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.6%
ORL 111, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.1%
DET 101, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%