NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Excitement	7.9 [281]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +28.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Comeback	2.0 [417]		LVP	Chet Holmgren (OKC): -21.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden McDaniels	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.22,0.22,0.24	0.08	0.16	0.01	11	64%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.12	0.00	4	125%	0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.11	0.01	20	61%	0.27	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Rudy Gobert	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	6	92%	0.21	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.02	12	46%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.02	15	55%	0.09	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.02
Troy Brown Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naz Reid	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.15	0.03	18	71%	0.45	4	-0.16	16	94%	0.11
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	3	117%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	8	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	17	56%	0.15	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Vasilije Micic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	7	12%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	9	22%	-0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.0	26.5	14.6	24.5	1.7	35.2	129.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +54.5%

OKC -13.7%

MIN +11.1%

OKC -2.6%

MIN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	OKC	NBA	MIN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.2	15.8	14.5	113.8	109.8	113.9
season	14.8	13.9		114.5	117.1
opponent	14.7	14.7		109.6	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.1	15.9	14.7	15.0	15.2
OKC	14.3	15.4	16.6	17.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaden McDaniels	63	63	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.59	10	-4	14	14.4	16.8	-2.43	15.6	16.2	-0.55
Rudy Gobert	73	69	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-5	16	14.7	17.0	-2.28	16.1	14.8	1.35
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	69	67	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.47	10	-4	14	15.0	15.7	-0.73	16.1	14.8	1.31
Karl-Anthony Towns	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.30	8	-2	10	15.1	15.4	-0.33	15.6	16.7	-1.16
Anthony Edwards	79	76	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.24	-1	7	-8	15.1	15.5	-0.42	15.6	16.6	-0.93
Troy Brown Jr.	12	11	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	3	0	16.2	15.0	1.13	17.3	15.6	1.68
Jordan McLaughlin	26	26	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	5	-4	16.2	14.8	1.40	16.2	15.6	0.61
Naz Reid	39	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.12	-7	13	-20	16.3	14.4	1.84	15.6	15.9	-0.35
Kyle Anderson	33	33	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	-0.30	-5	11	-16	16.1	14.7	1.45	14.9	16.3	-1.33

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	30	33	0.52	-1.02	1.53	0.05	16	-22	38	14.7	16.3	-1.57	15.3	15.1	0.23
Jaylin Williams	32	30	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.16	7	-13	20	15.0	16.2	-1.17	16.2	14.7	1.55
Vasilije Micic	9	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-5	4	13.4	16.0	-2.60	17.4	15.0	2.40
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	75	76	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-11	16	15.7	16.1	-0.40	14.9	16.3	-1.43
Luguentz Dort	50	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-6	6	14.9	16.9	-2.00	14.2	16.4	-2.17
Cason Wallace	35	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	4	-14	16.5	15.4	1.07	16.0	14.7	1.37
Kenrich Williams	32	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	1	-8	15.5	15.9	-0.45	15.3	15.1	0.19
Aaron Wiggins	37	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	0	-6	16.5	15.3	1.25	15.6	14.9	0.77
Jalen Williams	62	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	-2	-2	16.1	15.2	0.88	15.6	14.4	1.23
Josh Giddey	38	38	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.23	-17	11	-28	17.0	15.0	2.01	14.4	15.7	-1.28
Chet Holmgren	60	64	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.48	-13	7	-20	16.2	15.0	1.17	14.7	16.2	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.25,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.38,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.62,0.46,0.23,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.09,0.02,0	90.3%
CHI 106, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.61,0.37,0.23,0.15,0	90.0%
SEA 98, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.41,0	89.9%