NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	7.4 [370]		MVP	Moses Moody (GSW): +15.7%
Golden State Warriors	104		Comeback	2.6 [464]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -21.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	6	58%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	8	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.04	-0.01	22	62%	0.17	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.09	-0.04	0.05	19	66%	0.11	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Dwight Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dante Exum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.03	19	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Maxi Kleber	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moses Moody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.00	8	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	11	64%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.01	8	65%	0.14	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	8	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	14	47%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.07	-0.07	-0.00	16	64%	0.13	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.08	0.01	18	36%	-0.09	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.3	27.9	16.7	24.6	2.8	37.2	140.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +34.9%

GSW +3.1%

GSW +23.3%

DAL -12.8%

GSW +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.9	13.7	14.5	99.0	103.0	113.9
season	14.3	14.3		115.6	116.2
opponent	14.4	14.6		114.1	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	15.0	16.2	14.9	14.9
GSW	12.1	12.2	13.8	17.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Exum	46	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-6	8	15.0	14.8	0.21	13.4	13.9	-0.46
Maxi Kleber	35	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.22	5	-9	14	14.1	15.2	-1.10	12.3	14.4	-2.10
Luka Doncic	80	83	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.37	9	-13	22	14.7	15.3	-0.54	14.1	11.5	2.62
Dwight Powell	20	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	4	-12	16.6	14.4	2.23	10.4	14.4	-3.97
Daniel Gafford	55	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-4	4	14.6	15.2	-0.57	15.5	11.5	4.03
Kyrie Irving	80	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.45	6	-10	16	14.9	14.8	0.07	14.2	11.3	2.89
Jaden Hardy	18	18	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	4	-12	16.1	14.6	1.52	11.5	14.1	-2.62
P.J. Washington	77	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	3	-10	14.8	15.0	-0.18	13.9	13.0	0.93
Tim Hardaway Jr.	56	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	0	-4	14.4	15.5	-1.09	13.2	14.2	-0.92
Derrick Jones Jr.	38	36	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	11	-26	15.2	14.6	0.60	13.1	14.0	-0.84

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandin Podziemski	63	62	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.41	17	-13	30	13.6	13.8	-0.26	16.1	12.9	3.20
Chris Paul	40	39	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	-4	12	14.1	13.4	0.74	15.5	14.5	1.06
Andrew Wiggins	70	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	1	2	13.4	14.3	-0.97	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Klay Thompson	60	60	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.37	-4	8	-12	13.9	13.3	0.61	14.2	15.8	-1.59
Trayce Jackson-Davis	48	47	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	1	2	12.4	14.8	-2.32	14.2	15.4	-1.17
Moses Moody	40	42	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	1	2	14.1	13.3	0.82	15.0	14.7	0.28
Gary Payton II	32	28	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	5	-6	14.7	13.2	1.56	16.9	14.1	2.76
Kevon Looney	19	18	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	5	-6	15.3	13.3	1.98	15.9	14.6	1.32
Draymond Green	66	68	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	8	-12	13.3	14.2	-0.88	14.2	16.3	-2.14
Stephen Curry	67	70	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	8	-12	13.5	14.0	-0.52	14.0	16.7	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.5,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.76,0.67,0.45,0.79,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.89,0.96,1	89.7%
CLE 103, NYK 105	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.48,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.55,0.7,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.91,1	89.4%
SAS 119, DEN 122	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.72,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.67,0.45,0.63,0.55,0.83,1	89.3%