NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	118		Excitement	6.6 [499]		MVP	Derrick Jones Jr. (DAL): +25.0%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	1.8 [301]		LVP	Grant Williams (DAL): -12.1%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Hawkins	0.22	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22	0.20	0.05	0.03	19	74%	0.31	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Jose Alvarado	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.01	12	54%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.03	0.03	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.05
Naji Marshall	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	12	50%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Herbert Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.02	13	47%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Dyson Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kira Lewis Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.23	0.06	0.04	10	96%	0.28	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.06	-0.01	17	60%	0.20	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	27	57%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
A.J. Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	43%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.0	30.2	14.6	25.1	2.4	32.5	130.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +18.7%

DAL -1.6%

NOP +30.5%

NOP +3.6%

DAL -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DAL	NBA	NOP	DAL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.0	14.5	126.9	117.4	113.9
season	14.4	14.3		114.8	116.0
opponent	14.5	14.7		113.8	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.1	15.2	15.0	17.5	15.1
DAL	15.7	15.4	17.7	15.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dyson Daniels	73	72	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.07	18	-8	26	14.8	16.4	-1.67	15.8	16.7	-0.89
Jose Alvarado	51	51	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	2	6	15.9	14.2	1.64	15.5	16.6	-1.10
Larry Nance Jr.	39	40	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-4	18	13.3	16.5	-3.16	16.6	15.5	1.06
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	45	46	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.13	10	0	10	13.6	16.6	-2.98	16.0	16.0	-0.09
Jordan Hawkins	70	68	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.09	10	0	10	15.3	14.7	0.65	16.4	14.8	1.63
Herbert Jones	58	59	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	6	-2	15.8	14.1	1.64	16.7	14.8	1.94
Jonas Valanciunas	54	52	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	14	-18	16.5	13.3	3.16	15.5	16.6	-1.06
Kira Lewis Jr.	16	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	13	-16	15.2	15.1	0.13	12.6	16.7	-4.09
Naji Marshall	59	56	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.11	-7	17	-24	15.3	14.9	0.41	16.4	15.3	1.14

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	66	66	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.04	6	-16	22	15.8	16.5	-0.64	15.5	14.2	1.29
Seth Curry	23	23	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-11	12	14.9	16.4	-1.51	15.2	15.1	0.10
Maxi Kleber	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-15	20	14.7	16.4	-1.67	14.8	15.2	-0.42
A.J. Lawson	12	12	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-14	18	16.3	15.9	0.38	13.7	15.4	-1.69
Josh Green	61	63	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-7	4	16.2	15.6	0.54	14.5	16.6	-2.11
Tim Hardaway Jr.	76	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-4	-2	16.0	15.9	0.15	15.5	13.4	2.11
Jaden Hardy	49	47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	3	-16	15.9	16.1	-0.26	14.3	16.0	-1.70
Kyrie Irving	74	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	-2	-6	16.0	16.1	-0.14	16.0	11.2	4.77
Derrick Jones Jr.	51	52	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.03	-20	10	-30	16.9	14.9	1.98	15.4	14.8	0.56
Grant Williams	26	27	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.17	-16	6	-22	16.5	15.8	0.64	14.2	15.5	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 118, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.23,0.15,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	93.3%
DET 121, IND 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.58,0.65,0.51,0.42,0.55,0.39,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.05,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0	92.7%
LAL 122, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	92.6%