NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	136		Excitement	1.9 [460]		MVP	Chet Holmgren (OKC): +32.1%
Washington Wizards	128		Comeback	1.2 [1216]		LVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): -4.3%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chet Holmgren	0.32	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.30	0.05	0.03	14	86%	0.32	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.05	17	73%	0.27	3	-0.09	10	80%	-0.03
Isaiah Joe	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.05	-0.01	10	80%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.01	8	81%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.03	13	75%	0.19	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Josh Giddey	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	41%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	17	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	5	110%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.01	0.00	10	82%	0.17	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	65%	0.10	3	-0.05	9	89%	0.03
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	8	77%	0.11	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Bilal Coulibaly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	24	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	26.5	14.7	25.3	2.0	36.4	134.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +51.3%

WAS -9.7%

WAS -5.1%

OKC +10.4%

OKC +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	WAS	NBA	OKC	WAS	NBA
this game	13.1	14.8	14.5	132.0	123.1	113.9
season	13.9	13.7		117.1	109.8
opponent	14.1	14.7		118.7	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	11.8	14.2	12.8	13.6	13.1
WAS	15.9	14.1	16.0	13.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Williams	74	73	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.09	22	-14	36	12.9	13.4	-0.53	14.9	14.5	0.38
Josh Giddey	55	54	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.05	22	-14	36	12.9	13.3	-0.42	16.6	12.7	3.95
Kenrich Williams	36	36	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	12.7	13.3	-0.62	16.3	13.9	2.38
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	77	79	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	5	-2	12.7	14.0	-1.30	14.4	16.0	-1.59
Luguentz Dort	60	62	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	8	-8	12.8	13.5	-0.72	13.9	16.1	-2.22
Chet Holmgren	70	71	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	7	-6	13.2	12.8	0.37	13.7	16.9	-3.16
Cason Wallace	51	51	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.22	-4	12	-16	13.4	12.8	0.56	15.4	14.1	1.34
Aaron Wiggins	46	46	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	10	-12	13.9	12.4	1.49	15.6	14.1	1.54
Isaiah Joe	46	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	13	-18	13.5	12.7	0.74	13.0	16.2	-3.25

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	55	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-9	10	14.8	14.7	0.03	13.4	12.7	0.71
Jordan Poole	66	64	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-11	14	14.3	15.5	-1.18	12.9	13.3	-0.43
Mike Muscala	17	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-3	-2	17.6	14.2	3.46	10.6	13.5	-2.89
Kyle Kuzma	80	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-9	10	14.2	16.7	-2.49	13.6	11.2	2.38
Bilal Coulibaly	50	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.22	1	-9	10	15.2	14.3	0.94	13.5	12.7	0.84
Tyus Jones	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-7	6	14.2	16.4	-2.20	13.1	13.0	0.04
Delon Wright	36	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	0	-8	16.4	13.9	2.59	12.4	13.4	-1.01
Landry Shamet	36	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-2	-4	14.3	15.0	-0.72	13.2	13.0	0.19
Corey Kispert	37	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.18	-7	-1	-6	16.1	14.0	2.11	13.0	13.1	-0.11
Deni Avdija	75	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.03	-20	12	-32	14.3	15.9	-1.59	12.6	14.3	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.21,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.1%
IND 98, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0,0	94.8%
ATL 102, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	94.4%