NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	135		Excitement	16.0 [2]		MVP	Paolo Banchero (ORL): +101.9%
Sacramento Kings	138		Comeback	6.4 [262]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): -30.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paolo Banchero	1.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.62,0.62,0.76,0.76,0.65,1.11,1.06,1,1.09,1.09,1.02	0.10	0.94	0.03	25	67%	1.49	8	-0.47	14	79%	0.15
Chuma Okeke	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.12	0.14	0.00	5	110%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Houstan	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.03	0.00	6	100%	0.19	1	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Admiral Schofield	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.14,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.07,-0.07,0.14,0.1,-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	18	63%	0.16	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Black	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	7	64%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	5	50%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	33%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Trevelin Queen	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.04	-0.15	-0.00	7	31%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.35,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.6,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58	0.58	0.25	0.33	-0.00	20	77%	0.85	3	-0.27	8	75%	-0.01
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.4,0.31	0.31	0.17	0.17	0.02	21	67%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.39,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.00	0.27	0.00	14	59%	0.45	6	-0.18	9	67%	-0.07
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	6	83%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.02	0.01	9	74%	0.10	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	71%	0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	5	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.32,-0.39,-0.3	-0.30	-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	22	31%	-0.22	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.6	2.4	27.4	14.6	28.2	2.4	37.2	2.4	21.3	2.5	11.2	177.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.4	15.0	2.4	15.0	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -32.1%

ORL -10.3%

SAC +84.1%

SAC +9.4%

ORL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.0	13.8	14.5	116.4	116.9	113.9
season	15.1	14.0		111.8	115.6
opponent	14.8	14.4		113.6	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	14.3	18.4	13.7	17.3	15.4	15.8
SAC	15.7	10.4	15.1	14.8	13.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wendell Carter Jr.	41	40	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.17	9	-12	21	15.7	16.1	-0.40	15.5	12.9	2.62
Moritz Wagner	25	27	0.29	-0.79	1.09	0.29	0	-3	3	15.8	16.0	-0.24	13.7	13.8	-0.04
Admiral Schofield	10	11	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.02	6	-9	15	17.5	15.8	1.65	15.8	13.6	2.26
Chuma Okeke	54	54	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	15.9	16.1	-0.16	13.5	14.0	-0.50
Franz Wagner	11	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-2	1	15.7	16.0	-0.29	14.8	13.7	1.15
Anthony Black	48	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-3	3	16.0	16.0	0.05	14.1	13.6	0.50
Gary Harris	24	23	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	5	-13	17.0	15.7	1.27	12.8	14.0	-1.17
Caleb Houstan	62	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.50	6	-9	15	15.7	16.3	-0.61	13.4	14.2	-0.83
Trevelin Queen	74	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	15.9	16.1	-0.24	14.2	13.0	1.20
Paolo Banchero	93	95	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.49	-3	0	-3	15.8	16.8	-0.99	13.3	15.7	-2.34
Jalen Suggs	80	80	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.37	-14	11	-25	16.0	16.0	-0.01	13.7	13.9	-0.26
Goga Bitadze	58	57	-1.17	0.67	-1.83	-0.73	-15	12	-27	16.4	15.6	0.84	13.1	14.4	-1.29

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	91	88	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.92	-1	4	-5	13.9	13.4	0.52	15.7	16.8	-1.05
Malik Monk	93	91	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.39	14	-11	25	13.5	14.7	-1.20	16.4	14.6	1.72
Domantas Sabonis	89	92	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.35	10	-7	17	13.8	13.6	0.25	16.4	14.4	2.04
Harrison Barnes	76	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	2	-1	13.3	14.6	-1.35	16.2	15.6	0.62
Keegan Murray	95	92	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.38	-7	10	-17	13.6	14.3	-0.66	16.0	16.0	-0.06
Trey Lyles	45	43	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	4	-5	13.8	13.8	-0.03	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Juan Toscano-Anderson	3	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	5	-7	0.7	14.1	-13.45	6.0	16.1	-10.08
JaVale McGee	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	6	-9	16.1	13.4	2.65	13.4	16.4	-2.96
Kevin Huerter	34	33	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.15	4	-1	5	15.1	13.2	1.81	16.7	15.7	1.03
Davion Mitchell	26	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.25	6	-3	9	13.8	13.7	0.10	17.2	15.6	1.56
Chris Duarte	22	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.05	-6	9	-15	14.4	13.6	0.78	14.0	16.5	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.42,0.26,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.78,0.87,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.72,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.23,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.84,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.53,0.68,0.46,0.83,0.73,0	86.9%
BOS 101, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.68,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.39,0.44,0.64,0.78,0.98,1	86.7%
PHX 109, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.65,0.83,1	86.6%