NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	111		Excitement	9.1 [139]		MVP	Terry Rozier (CHA): +38.5%
Sacramento Kings	104		Comeback	6.2 [52]		LVP	Domantas Sabonis (SAC): -18.9%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.39	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.39,0.39	0.15	0.24	0.01	24	63%	0.46	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.04
P.J. Washington	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.31	0.08	0.22	-0.00	13	65%	0.34	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	10	45%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Nick Smith Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Richards	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	4	70%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Miles Bridges	0.04	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.12	-0.04	0.04	18	64%	0.18	3	-0.14	6	100%	0.03
Bryce McGowens	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	44%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
JT Thor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nathan Mensah	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.21,0.3,0.41,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.09	-0.03	25	52%	0.37	3	-0.21	8	62%	-0.03
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	6	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.01	11	55%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	3	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	38%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	-0.01	7	43%	-0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	21	53%	0.13	11	-0.32	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	26.4	15.5	24.5	2.4	35.4	129.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +37.7%

CHA +15.5%

SAC -35.8%

CHA +32.5%

CHA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	SAC	NBA	CHA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.2	13.3	14.5	109.9	103.0	113.9
season	14.8	14.0		108.3	115.6
opponent	14.8	14.5		113.6	118.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	13.8	16.9	15.1	15.2	15.2
SAC	12.9	13.1	12.1	15.5	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Washington	62	62	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.27	16	-9	25	14.4	16.5	-2.12	13.4	13.2	0.20
Miles Bridges	87	86	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-2	11	14.6	19.0	-4.43	13.0	15.0	-1.97
Nick Richards	57	55	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	5	-3	15.6	14.6	1.02	12.7	14.1	-1.36
Terry Rozier	76	76	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	8	-9	15.4	14.5	0.94	13.1	13.9	-0.79
JT Thor	14	15	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.11	12	-5	17	9.9	16.0	-6.11	13.7	13.3	0.48
Ish Smith	39	39	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.16	13	-6	19	14.3	15.7	-1.43	13.4	13.3	0.09
Cody Martin	67	67	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.42	-8	15	-23	15.9	13.8	2.15	13.5	13.1	0.40
Bryce McGowens	47	48	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	6	-5	14.9	15.5	-0.59	13.0	13.7	-0.70
Nick Smith Jr.	26	26	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	9	-11	18.5	14.0	4.51	14.9	12.8	2.15
Nathan Mensah	30	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	14	-21	16.8	14.5	2.29	14.2	12.9	1.30

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	52	53	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-8	9	12.6	14.1	-1.43	14.5	15.9	-1.35
Kevin Huerter	24	24	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.08	-1	-6	5	14.2	13.1	1.10	17.5	14.5	2.98
Davion Mitchell	34	30	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.13	-4	-3	-1	13.3	13.3	-0.05	15.6	15.0	0.63
Alex Len	26	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-6	5	13.9	13.1	0.80	16.2	14.9	1.34
Trey Lyles	34	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-5	3	13.7	13.1	0.62	15.7	14.9	0.80
Juan Toscano-Anderson	1	0	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-4	1	3.0	13.4	-10.43	0.0	15.2	-15.19
Chris Duarte	60	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-10	13	13.1	13.7	-0.56	15.8	14.3	1.43
De'Aaron Fox	77	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.47	4	-11	15	12.9	14.8	-1.92	15.5	14.0	1.46
Domantas Sabonis	74	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-4	1	13.3	13.5	-0.26	14.9	16.2	-1.34
Keegan Murray	81	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.26	-8	1	-9	13.3	13.3	0.03	14.9	16.5	-1.64
Malik Monk	42	43	-0.91	0.41	-1.31	-0.29	-21	14	-35	14.5	12.5	2.09	13.2	16.7	-3.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 102, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.78,0.58,0	92.6%
LAL 88, CHA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.76,0.74,0	91.0%
PHX 109, LAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.8,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.58,0	91.0%