NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	122		Excitement	7.6 [352]		MVP	T.J. McConnell (IND): +22.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	113		Comeback	11.3 [44]		LVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): -13.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. McConnell	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23	0.07	0.15	-0.01	9	62%	0.23	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Bennedict Mathurin	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.09	0.02	15	64%	0.24	1	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Isaiah Jackson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.00	9	72%	0.22	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Myles Turner	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.04	5	76%	0.08	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Tyrese Haliburton	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	22	55%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Obi Toppin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Smith	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	10	35%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	10	18%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	8	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	20	59%	0.14	4	-0.09	11	73%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.04	-0.02	17	55%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.01	13	75%	0.20	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.03	12	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	45%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Damian Lillard	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	16	34%	-0.12	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	2.4	32.8	13.8	26.3	1.5	35.2	142.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +27.0%

IND +1.0%

IND +8.3%

IND +9.9%

IND +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	12.9	14.8	14.5	117.3	108.7	113.9
season	13.8	14.3		120.0	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.7		114.8	117.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.2	11.5	14.9	11.6	12.9
MIL	14.0	13.3	17.1	15.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Obi Toppin	66	65	1.12	-0.62	1.74	0.09	35	-26	61	11.6	15.2	-3.52	15.3	13.8	1.48
T.J. McConnell	49	48	1.05	-0.55	1.60	0.14	31	-22	53	11.4	14.3	-2.86	15.4	14.3	1.09
Bennedict Mathurin	78	79	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.10	22	-13	35	12.4	14.6	-2.21	15.4	12.9	2.43
Isaiah Jackson	45	45	0.66	-0.16	0.83	-0.19	29	-20	49	11.5	14.0	-2.45	15.8	14.0	1.86
Tyrese Haliburton	78	78	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.38	-5	14	-19	13.4	11.6	1.74	14.7	15.1	-0.46
Buddy Hield	40	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.19	4	5	-1	14.4	12.0	2.48	15.6	14.2	1.39
Myles Turner	59	59	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.42	-20	29	-49	14.0	11.5	2.45	14.0	15.8	-1.86
Aaron Nesmith	59	60	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.08	-11	20	-31	13.0	12.8	0.18	14.6	15.0	-0.36
Andrew Nembhard	20	20	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.21	-21	30	-51	14.6	12.5	2.08	11.7	15.5	-3.74
Jalen Smith	26	25	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.14	-19	28	-47	15.6	12.0	3.54	12.1	15.6	-3.49

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	79	79	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-12	15	14.4	15.9	-1.51	13.6	10.8	2.79
Damian Lillard	80	80	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-13	17	14.6	15.2	-0.52	14.0	9.4	4.56
Andre Jackson Jr.	11	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	3	-15	14.9	14.8	0.16	12.4	13.0	-0.63
Malik Beasley	79	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.36	5	-14	19	14.7	15.0	-0.36	13.2	12.0	1.25
Brook Lopez	83	83	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-15	21	14.7	15.2	-0.53	13.2	11.8	1.45
Khris Middleton	67	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.43	5	-14	19	15.1	14.1	0.98	13.0	12.7	0.36
Cameron Payne	28	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.07	-13	4	-17	14.9	14.7	0.17	9.6	14.1	-4.54
Pat Connaughton	54	52	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.22	-22	13	-35	14.6	14.9	-0.29	11.7	14.2	-2.50
Bobby Portis	39	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.15	-21	12	-33	15.6	14.3	1.35	12.2	13.4	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.35,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 89, CHA 84	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.04,0	91.7%
NYK 101, BOS 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.77,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.34,0.29,0.17,0.01,0,0,0,0	91.6%
DEN 126, POR 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.01,0.06,0.01,0	91.1%