NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	114		Excitement	8.0 [275]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +32.2%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.9 [800]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -14.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.13	0.10	0.02	11	79%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Dario Saric	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	11	54%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Brandin Podziemski	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	7	81%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.04
Kevon Looney	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.07	-0.08	21	42%	0.06	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	12	37%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.31,0.31,0.32	0.32	0.15	0.16	-0.01	18	68%	0.40	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.13	-0.02	12	62%	0.28	3	-0.06	18	100%	0.15
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	10	67%	0.18	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	17	56%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	67%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.03	0.01	13	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	5	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	0.00	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.5	32.3	15.3	31.9	2.7	30.3	142.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +15.8%

DEN +17.4%

DEN +17.7%

GSW -0.2%

GSW -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	14.2	14.5	114.0	118.8	113.9
season	14.3	15.0		116.2	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.4		111.6	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	17.0	13.6	14.4	13.0	14.4
DEN	13.7	14.1	13.8	15.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	61	62	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.09	13	-19	32	13.7	15.6	-1.88	14.0	14.5	-0.49
Dario Saric	46	46	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.12	11	-17	28	12.8	15.8	-2.99	13.2	15.1	-1.87
Andrew Wiggins	59	61	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.44	18	-24	42	13.8	15.3	-1.48	15.1	13.0	2.09
Trayce Jackson-Davis	32	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-2	-2	15.0	14.2	0.81	12.9	14.8	-1.90
Moses Moody	6	6	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	2	-10	13.7	14.5	-0.80	11.0	14.4	-3.44
Brandin Podziemski	71	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.27	1	-7	8	14.4	14.6	-0.23	14.5	13.7	0.76
Klay Thompson	68	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-4	2	14.3	14.6	-0.30	14.2	14.2	0.04
Kevon Looney	40	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	3	-12	15.8	13.5	2.34	16.0	13.0	3.05
Jonathan Kuminga	46	47	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	0.08	-24	18	-42	15.4	13.6	1.84	14.3	14.1	0.19
Stephen Curry	71	71	-1.07	0.57	-1.64	-0.31	-26	20	-46	15.1	12.7	2.49	13.9	15.1	-1.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	86	84	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.29	23	-17	40	13.9	16.1	-2.15	14.8	12.5	2.29
Nikola Jokic	80	81	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.28	21	-15	36	14.2	14.3	-0.06	14.8	12.8	2.01
Jamal Murray	69	68	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.16	20	-14	34	14.7	13.2	1.49	14.4	14.5	-0.07
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	76	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-9	24	14.4	13.6	0.79	14.7	13.5	1.21
Aaron Gordon	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-7	20	14.2	14.3	-0.13	13.9	15.5	-1.63
Julian Strawther	19	18	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	10	-14	12.9	14.5	-1.59	12.3	14.9	-2.61
Peyton Watson	45	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.17	-11	17	-28	14.5	14.0	0.53	14.0	14.8	-0.78
Zeke Nnaji	11	10	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.12	-11	17	-28	14.1	14.3	-0.16	16.4	14.2	2.20
Reggie Jackson	30	31	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.12	-14	20	-34	13.4	14.6	-1.24	14.6	14.3	0.28
Christian Braun	22	22	-0.55	1.05	-1.59	0.10	-22	28	-50	15.3	13.9	1.32	13.8	14.6	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.8,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.83,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 81, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.84,0.89,0.99,1	92.7%
NJN 79, DAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.8,0.79,0.91,1,1	92.3%
LAC 90, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.81,0.95,0.99,1,1	92.0%