NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	121		Excitement	9.4 [106]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +93.8%
New Orleans Pelicans	120		Comeback	56.8 [63]		LVP	Mike Conley (MIN): -29.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.94	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.56,0.94	0.30	0.65	0.02	11	97%	0.94	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Jaden McDaniels	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	80%	0.15	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,0,0,0.15,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	19	61%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gobert	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.04	0.09	-0.11	0.02	7	71%	-0.02	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.25
Shake Milton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Naz Reid	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.3	-0.10	-0.20	-0.00	8	31%	-0.21	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.06	0.01	15	72%	0.26	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	12	54%	0.13	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.03	0.01	7	72%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Matt Ryan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	91%	0.10	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	64%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,-0.15	-0.15	0.01	-0.16	0.01	24	53%	-0.00	4	-0.15	9	78%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	0.2	29.3	15.4	27.5	2.4	38.5	140.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +56.0%

NOP -23.4%

MIN +9.8%

MIN +9.5%

NOP -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NOP	NBA	MIN	NOP	NBA
this game	14.4	14.4	14.5	119.8	121.2	113.9
season	14.8	14.4		114.5	114.8
opponent	14.7	14.7		111.0	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.1	12.2	14.6	15.8	14.4
NOP	14.2	15.9	13.1	14.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaden McDaniels	71	69	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.51	8	-7	15	14.0	15.5	-1.50	14.5	14.1	0.36
Karl-Anthony Towns	68	67	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	-8	17	14.7	14.0	0.66	14.9	13.2	1.77
Mike Conley	64	62	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.64	-5	6	-11	15.1	13.3	1.77	14.2	14.6	-0.38
Rudy Gobert	73	70	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.66	-7	8	-15	15.1	12.7	2.44	14.1	14.9	-0.77
Kyle Anderson	58	56	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	-4	9	13.5	15.7	-2.22	14.4	14.3	0.17
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	38	37	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	-5	11	13.0	15.3	-2.32	14.6	14.2	0.38
Anthony Edwards	60	61	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.16	13	-12	25	15.7	12.5	3.21	14.4	14.2	0.23
Naz Reid	38	40	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.10	-8	9	-17	13.6	15.0	-1.35	14.2	14.4	-0.17
Shake Milton	35	33	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.06	-16	17	-33	14.1	14.6	-0.46	13.3	14.9	-1.62

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Zeller	28	27	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.14	3	-4	7	14.9	14.1	0.80	13.2	14.9	-1.67
Herbert Jones	56	57	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.13	11	-12	23	14.7	13.9	0.83	15.0	13.7	1.27
Naji Marshall	49	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.11	-7	6	-13	14.9	13.8	1.08	13.7	15.1	-1.38
Matt Ryan	56	59	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-2	3	13.9	14.9	-0.98	14.1	14.9	-0.79
Jonas Valanciunas	59	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.24	2	-3	5	14.0	14.8	-0.79	15.7	12.5	3.26
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	22	26	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	4	-9	12.9	14.8	-1.86	12.8	15.0	-2.15
Brandon Ingram	67	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.64	3	-4	7	14.9	13.1	1.82	14.6	14.0	0.60
Dyson Daniels	78	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.55	-6	5	-11	14.2	14.9	-0.70	14.5	14.1	0.40
Jordan Hawkins	80	77	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.57	-7	6	-13	14.1	15.2	-1.06	14.4	14.5	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.97,0.87,0.91,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.84,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 98, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.6,0.67,0.52,0.67,0.58,0	92.7%
DEN 107, NOK 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.55,0.63,0	92.0%
NOH 102, NJN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.8,0.78,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.27,0	91.3%