NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	118		Excitement	9.6 [101]		MVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): +27.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	120		Comeback	13.7 [245]		LVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): -31.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Sasser	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	17	74%	0.37	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Marvin Bagley III	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	6	86%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jared Rhoden	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	15	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Umude	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	9	44%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.00	-0.12	0.03	10	52%	0.01	2	-0.16	1	100%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	8	37%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.31	-0.03	-0.28	0.00	27	52%	0.00	5	-0.31	10	90%	0.10

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.37,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.16	-0.00	25	54%	0.31	1	-0.04	13	92%	0.09
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.15	0.01	8	87%	0.28	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	6	67%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Malik Beasley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	6	77%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	14	58%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
MarJon Beauchamp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Andre Jackson Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	16	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	34.2	14.4	25.8	1.7	34.6	139.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +43.9%

MIL +9.4%

DET -61.5%

MIL +60.0%

DET -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	13.5	12.9	14.5	107.3	111.1	113.9
season	14.2	14.3		108.4	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.3		114.8	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.4	14.0	11.6	14.1	13.5
MIL	12.3	11.8	14.6	13.0	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Rhoden	28	28	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.07	10	-12	22	13.3	13.6	-0.30	13.8	12.6	1.23
Marvin Bagley III	43	41	0.28	-0.78	1.07	0.26	1	-3	4	14.0	13.2	0.84	13.3	12.7	0.66
Stanley Umude	19	20	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.15	-2	0	-2	13.2	13.6	-0.42	14.0	12.6	1.40
Killian Hayes	67	65	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	2	-6	13.5	13.5	-0.04	13.4	12.2	1.12
Marcus Sasser	64	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.50	5	-7	12	13.4	13.7	-0.28	13.1	12.6	0.49
Isaiah Stewart	85	82	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	2	-6	13.8	12.6	1.23	12.8	13.3	-0.48
Ausar Thompson	86	85	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.53	-6	4	-10	13.3	14.3	-1.00	12.5	14.4	-1.89
Cade Cunningham	91	89	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.51	-7	5	-12	13.7	12.6	1.06	12.4	15.4	-2.99
Jalen Duren	67	67	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.70	-3	1	-4	13.2	14.0	-0.84	12.7	13.3	-0.66

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	58	58	1.23	-0.73	1.95	0.52	24	-22	46	11.9	14.0	-2.11	14.0	13.0	1.04
Damian Lillard	78	78	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.65	5	-3	8	12.4	14.3	-1.88	13.5	13.6	-0.16
Brook Lopez	61	62	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.63	5	-3	8	12.4	13.6	-1.22	13.4	13.7	-0.28
Cameron Payne	52	54	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-5	12	13.1	12.8	0.29	13.8	13.2	0.56
Jae Crowder	84	86	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.50	-2	4	-6	13.0	12.7	0.31	13.3	14.4	-1.16
Giannis Antetokounmpo	50	49	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-3	8	13.3	12.6	0.66	14.1	13.0	1.03
Andre Jackson Jr.	8	8	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	2	-2	11.7	13.0	-1.25	14.9	13.4	1.47
Pat Connaughton	40	43	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.25	-4	6	-10	13.9	12.3	1.66	13.1	13.8	-0.68
Bobby Portis	49	51	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.22	-5	7	-12	13.5	12.4	1.07	13.5	13.5	0.04
MarJon Beauchamp	60	61	-0.77	1.27	-2.03	-0.03	-25	27	-52	13.5	12.1	1.41	13.0	14.2	-1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 86, NOK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.58,1	91.7%
DET 85, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.59,1	90.2%
ATL 104, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.58,1	89.9%