NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	116		Excitement	5.9 [621]		MVP	Jordan Hawkins (NOP): +28.9%
Denver Nuggets	134		Comeback	9.8 [343]		LVP	Brandon Ingram (NOP): -10.5%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Hawkins	0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.22	0.07	-0.00	19	72%	0.32	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Matt Ryan	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.17	0.02	0.01	8	89%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Larry Nance Jr.	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	3	83%	0.06	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dyson Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	90%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Zion Williamson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.04	0.04	22	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brandon Ingram	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	22	48%	0.02	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.08	0.07	24	66%	0.26	2	-0.06	5	60%	0.03
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.16,0.19,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	0.01	13	78%	0.22	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Collin Gillespie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	4	67%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	11	62%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.05	16	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	39%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hunter Tyson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Braxton Key	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.02	0.07	10	68%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	23.8	14.8	30.4	2.3	31.4	129.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.8%

DEN +6.5%

DEN +9.1%

DEN +7.7%

DEN +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DEN	NBA	NOP	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	14.6	14.5	112.6	134.0	113.9
season	14.4	15.0		114.8	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.7		111.6	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.2	14.5	15.0	12.7	13.8
DEN	16.3	15.5	11.1	15.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dyson Daniels	42	44	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.22	9	-27	36	13.9	13.8	0.05	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Larry Nance Jr.	33	32	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-20	22	13.3	14.1	-0.77	15.1	14.3	0.83
Kira Lewis Jr.	20	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-18	18	14.8	13.6	1.27	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Jonas Valanciunas	49	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-8	-2	14.7	13.1	1.58	14.5	14.6	-0.08
Matt Ryan	55	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-14	10	14.3	13.3	1.00	13.7	15.6	-1.87
Zion Williamson	80	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-7	-4	13.3	15.7	-2.35	15.0	13.2	1.83
Cody Zeller	10	8	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	-9	0	14.5	13.8	0.75	11.2	14.8	-3.60
Jordan Hawkins	82	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	-3	-12	13.7	14.2	-0.46	14.9	13.4	1.49
Herbert Jones	68	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.23	-23	5	-28	13.3	14.9	-1.65	15.0	13.8	1.23
Brandon Ingram	76	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	0.22	-29	11	-40	14.0	13.4	0.52	14.5	14.7	-0.13

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	70	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.12	23	-5	28	14.6	14.6	-0.00	14.0	13.5	0.50
Peyton Watson	41	43	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	3	12	12.5	16.0	-3.51	14.6	13.3	1.26
Nikola Jokic	75	78	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.03	16	2	14	14.9	13.4	1.55	13.6	14.5	-0.86
Reggie Jackson	50	53	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.11	16	2	14	15.5	13.7	1.80	13.4	14.3	-0.96
Aaron Gordon	77	80	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.10	8	10	-2	14.8	13.7	1.07	13.2	15.8	-2.58
Michael Porter Jr.	60	59	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.09	13	5	8	15.1	13.7	1.48	13.9	13.7	0.21
Christian Braun	38	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	14	-10	13.3	15.3	-2.05	14.1	13.7	0.45
Collin Gillespie	37	36	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	19	-20	13.6	15.1	-1.53	14.0	13.7	0.31
Hunter Tyson	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	15	-12	22.0	14.5	7.52	11.5	13.9	-2.37
Braxton Key	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	15	-12	22.0	14.5	7.52	11.5	13.9	-2.37
Jalen Pickett	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	15	-12	22.0	14.5	7.52	11.5	13.9	-2.37
Julian Strawther	41	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.08	-7	25	-32	13.7	15.1	-1.40	14.9	13.2	1.72
Zeke Nnaji	10	10	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.03	-6	24	-30	19.8	14.0	5.82	13.1	13.9	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.45,0.47,0.59,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.66,0.88,0.79,0.96,0.96,0.88,0.93,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.38,0.38,0.55,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
TOR 84, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%
SAC 88, OKC 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.63,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.98,1,1	92.6%