NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	124		Excitement	7.0 [433]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +23.8%
Brooklyn Nets	114		Comeback	1.6 [1053]		LVP	Royce O'Neale (BKN): -14.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.24	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.17	0.09	0.01	20	70%	0.31	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Luke Kornet	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.11	0.00	5	100%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kristaps Porzingis	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.04	0.02	10	79%	0.21	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01
Jrue Holiday	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	15	56%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Oshae Brissett	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Sam Hauser	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.03	7	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.06	0.05	22	44%	-0.09	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.01

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cam Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	24	53%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	14	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.05
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	72%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	0.00	5	50%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Armoni Brooks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trendon Watford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Wilson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Day'Ron Sharpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	4	69%	0.05	2	-0.08	8	62%	-0.05
Mikal Bridges	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.03	0.07	20	46%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	15	20%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	31.2	0.2	24.1	2.5	28.4	115.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +28.0%

BOS +26.9%

BOS +2.3%

BKN -10.2%

BOS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	BKN	NBA	BOS	BKN	NBA
this game	13.5	15.1	14.5	122.8	114.0	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		120.7	111.9
opponent	14.5	14.7		114.7	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.1	12.2	14.1	14.9	13.5
BKN	15.2	15.5	16.5	13.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	67	67	0.81	-0.31	1.13	-0.04	29	-19	48	12.4	15.8	-3.35	14.8	15.8	-1.04
Jayson Tatum	88	88	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-8	26	13.3	15.5	-2.20	15.1	15.2	-0.05
Jrue Holiday	86	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-4	18	13.1	15.9	-2.81	15.1	15.2	-0.15
Luke Kornet	29	31	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	3	4	14.1	13.3	0.74	17.1	14.2	2.82
Jaylen Brown	75	73	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	4	2	13.5	13.6	-0.10	14.7	16.2	-1.51
Kristaps Porzingis	66	64	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	6	-2	13.7	13.3	0.31	13.9	17.3	-3.41
Sam Hauser	36	35	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.25	-5	15	-20	14.6	13.0	1.66	16.0	14.6	1.35
Payton Pritchard	37	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.21	-10	20	-30	14.4	13.1	1.27	16.2	14.5	1.65
Oshae Brissett	21	21	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.15	-13	23	-36	15.8	12.9	2.86	15.3	15.1	0.27

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trendon Watford	10	10	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.14	8	-18	26	15.2	15.1	0.09	15.6	13.3	2.28
Day'Ron Sharpe	36	35	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.15	6	-16	22	15.9	14.7	1.16	13.9	13.3	0.61
Armoni Brooks	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	12.0	15.2	-3.18	20.5	13.4	7.10
Jalen Wilson	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	12.0	15.2	-3.18	20.5	13.4	7.10
Spencer Dinwiddie	75	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	-4	-2	15.1	15.1	0.05	13.2	14.7	-1.51
Lonnie Walker IV	37	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-8	6	16.0	14.6	1.40	13.6	13.5	0.02
Dennis Smith Jr.	29	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-5	0	15.7	14.9	0.80	14.2	13.3	0.88
Mikal Bridges	77	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-1	-8	14.7	16.5	-1.82	13.6	13.2	0.41
Cam Thomas	78	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	15.1	15.4	-0.31	13.2	14.8	-1.57
Royce O'Neale	76	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.02	-18	8	-26	15.2	15.0	0.16	13.2	14.9	-1.69
Dorian Finney-Smith	78	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.04	-19	9	-28	14.7	16.5	-1.77	13.5	13.8	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.18,0.29,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.16,0.03,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, GSW 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.5%
LAL 90, ATL 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0	92.9%
NOH 101, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	92.7%