NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	8.6 [233]		MVP	David Roddy (MEM): +44.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	112		Comeback	9.8 [267]		LVP	Jaden Hardy (DAL): -21.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2	0.09	0.12	0.01	15	66%	0.31	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.03
Christian Wood	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	-0.00	8	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Josh Green	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	16	66%	0.13	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
McKinley Wright IV	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maxi Kleber	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Powell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Justin Holiday	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	9	39%	-0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	-0.21	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,-0.21,-0.21	-0.03	-0.16	0.03	21	48%	-0.00	3	-0.21	4	25%	-0.05

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Roddy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.14,0.23,0.28,0.23,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.44	0.19	0.25	-0.00	13	89%	0.48	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0,0,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.07	0.03	18	57%	0.20	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.01
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	12	42%	0.05	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.05
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.03	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Santi Aldama	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Konchar	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	75%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	28.5	14.7	27.2	1.8	32.5	129.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +12.4%

MEM +9.8%

MEM +10.0%

MEM +15.5%

MEM +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.0	13.8	14.4	111.3	116.7	113.4
season	15.2	13.9		115.5	113.4
opponent	14.3	14.3		110.0	115.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	18.2	15.4	15.8	16.0
MEM	13.9	13.7	14.0	13.6	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
McKinley Wright IV	39	40	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.04	6	-10	16	15.7	16.2	-0.46	15.0	12.9	2.12
Dwight Powell	39	38	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-8	12	15.9	16.1	-0.21	13.1	14.3	-1.13
Justin Holiday	26	27	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-2	0	14.8	16.5	-1.66	14.4	13.6	0.83
Davis Bertans	12	12	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-6	8	17.7	15.8	1.88	15.5	13.6	1.93
Christian Wood	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	3	-10	16.7	15.7	0.94	14.9	13.3	1.63
Tim Hardaway Jr.	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.41	-2	-2	0	16.2	15.5	0.67	13.3	15.5	-2.25
Josh Green	67	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-2	0	16.4	15.2	1.19	14.0	13.4	0.63
Maxi Kleber	53	52	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	4	-12	16.0	16.0	-0.05	13.9	13.7	0.28
Reggie Bullock	66	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	0	-4	15.4	17.3	-1.87	13.3	14.9	-1.63
Jaden Hardy	78	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	3	-10	16.2	15.4	0.81	13.3	15.9	-2.64

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Roddy	44	45	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-7	18	13.6	14.0	-0.45	16.8	15.4	1.41
Dillon Brooks	70	70	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.47	6	-2	8	13.4	15.0	-1.58	15.7	16.8	-1.05
Desmond Bane	71	71	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.42	6	-2	8	13.7	14.2	-0.52	15.7	16.8	-1.13
Jaren Jackson Jr.	70	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.46	3	1	2	13.6	14.3	-0.63	15.1	18.2	-3.03
Tyus Jones	67	68	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	5	-6	13.6	14.2	-0.57	16.2	15.6	0.57
Santi Aldama	43	45	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.16	6	-2	8	13.9	13.8	0.13	16.3	15.8	0.50
Luke Kennard	38	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	5	-6	14.7	13.2	1.53	17.2	15.3	1.90
John Konchar	22	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.05	-2	6	-8	14.7	13.5	1.19	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Xavier Tillman	55	56	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.05	-8	12	-20	14.1	13.4	0.65	16.4	15.5	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.61,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 111, SAC 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.29,0.46,0.36,0.54,0.59,0.91,1	92.8%
NYK 109, CHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.54,0.86,0.9,1	92.0%
UTA 114, ATL 117	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.45,0.35,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.1,0.25,0.54,0.45,0.91,1	92.0%