NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	117		Excitement	7.7 [401]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +26.5%
Golden State Warriors	129		Comeback	2.0 [815]		LVP	Chris Boucher (TOR): -9.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.09	0.02	20	68%	0.30	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	14	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.14	-0.05	0.04	15	69%	0.15	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	12	63%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.04
Thaddeus Young	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	26	37%	0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
O.G. Anunoby	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26	0.27	0.21	0.09	0.03	21	74%	0.36	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Jonathan Kuminga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.17,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.11	0.16	-0.00	7	94%	0.32	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.09	0.03	24	59%	0.23	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	7	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	-0.00	5	77%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jordan Poole	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.05	0.06	10	60%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	27.6	14.6	26.0	2.0	32.2	129.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +64.8%

TOR -4.5%

TOR -8.8%

TOR -6.9%

GSW +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	14.6	13.6	14.4	113.6	127.7	113.4
season	14.7	13.9		114.0	114.1
opponent	14.1	14.5		112.6	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.4	15.8	15.8	14.7	14.6
GSW	12.4	13.5	12.4	16.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.G. Anunoby	22	22	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-19	26	13.2	15.0	-1.78	14.6	13.4	1.27
Juancho Hernangomez	23	22	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-14	16	15.5	14.3	1.15	14.7	13.4	1.33
Scottie Barnes	77	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-10	8	14.6	14.5	0.06	14.0	12.6	1.33
Pascal Siakam	86	84	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-5	-2	14.7	14.1	0.56	13.7	13.4	0.35
Thaddeus Young	21	20	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	0	-12	15.4	14.4	1.06	12.0	14.0	-1.99
Fred VanVleet	88	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	-2	-8	14.2	17.1	-2.91	13.2	16.4	-3.15
Precious Achiuwa	76	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-4	-4	14.7	14.3	0.39	14.3	11.9	2.34
Chris Boucher	42	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	4	-20	15.4	14.0	1.35	13.0	14.1	-1.17
Gary Trent Jr.	80	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.15	-14	2	-16	14.3	15.5	-1.15	13.4	14.7	-1.33

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	68	69	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.04	24	-12	36	14.0	13.0	1.00	15.1	13.5	1.57
Kevon Looney	50	51	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	0	12	13.6	13.7	-0.13	14.5	14.6	-0.07
Stephen Curry	84	86	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-1	14	13.0	17.0	-4.04	14.2	16.8	-2.61
Jonathan Kuminga	48	48	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	3	6	14.5	12.8	1.67	14.3	14.8	-0.51
Anthony Lamb	20	22	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	6	0	14.0	13.5	0.51	14.7	14.6	0.13
Klay Thompson	82	82	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	6	0	13.6	13.7	-0.05	14.4	15.3	-0.88
Draymond Green	69	70	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	8	-4	13.7	13.4	0.30	14.7	14.3	0.37
JaMychal Green	33	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	13	-14	11.8	14.5	-2.71	15.5	14.1	1.37
Jordan Poole	51	52	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.17	-13	25	-38	14.5	12.8	1.67	14.4	14.8	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	94.1%
GSW 90, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.3%
BKN 82, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.65,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.2%