NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	111		Excitement	10.1 [77]		MVP	Myles Turner (IND): +58.3%
Indiana Pacers	116		Comeback	6.8 [334]		LVP	Terry Rozier (CHA): -24.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.26	0.09	0.18	0.01	10	69%	0.33	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.08
P.J. Washington	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.21,0.21	0.06	0.17	0.02	17	58%	0.26	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jalen McDaniels	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.01	0.09	-0.02	14	57%	0.22	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
JT Thor	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Smith Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.00	5	54%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Cody Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	6	25%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	44%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
LaMelo Ball	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	12	54%	-0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.05,-0.24	-0.10	-0.16	-0.02	15	50%	0.10	7	-0.34	8	87%	0.07

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.34,0.34,0.58,0.58	0.58	0.16	0.42	-0.00	16	69%	0.63	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.02
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	0.01	11	83%	0.34	4	-0.15	1	100%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.10	-0.01	10	62%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.07
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.09	0.02	7	71%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.04
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01	3	87%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Buddy Hield	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	21	46%	0.09	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.07
Chris Duarte	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.00	9	19%	-0.16	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	29.6	14.6	28.3	1.7	39.2	141.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +13.7%

IND +15.3%

CHA -5.6%

IND +22.3%

IND +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	IND	NBA	CHA	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	12.7	14.4	105.7	112.6	113.4
season	14.0	13.7		107.8	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.3		116.4	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	12.6	17.5	15.1	14.8	14.9
IND	14.7	11.3	12.1	12.8	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JT Thor	24	25	0.47	-0.97	1.44	0.00	16	-21	37	13.1	15.5	-2.34	14.0	12.3	1.67
Mark Williams	35	34	0.28	-0.78	1.05	0.13	5	-10	15	13.6	15.6	-2.00	14.1	12.1	2.02
Dennis Smith Jr.	49	49	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.21	9	-14	23	15.0	14.9	0.16	13.3	12.2	1.16
Cody Martin	55	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-7	9	14.8	15.1	-0.32	13.4	12.0	1.43
Jalen McDaniels	77	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	1	-7	14.2	17.1	-2.92	12.6	13.3	-0.71
LaMelo Ball	54	54	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.32	-8	3	-11	15.1	14.8	0.29	12.8	12.7	0.12
Terry Rozier	80	77	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.34	-12	7	-19	15.6	12.7	2.96	12.0	14.9	-2.87
Mason Plumlee	70	69	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.48	-10	5	-15	15.6	13.6	2.00	12.1	14.1	-2.02
P.J. Washington	81	78	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.36	-21	16	-37	15.5	13.1	2.34	12.3	14.0	-1.67

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nembhard	71	73	1.19	-0.69	1.89	0.46	25	-20	45	11.5	15.4	-3.83	14.9	15.0	-0.10
Myles Turner	75	76	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.37	20	-15	35	11.6	15.7	-4.04	15.6	13.1	2.58
Aaron Nesmith	68	68	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-7	19	11.8	14.5	-2.69	15.6	13.7	1.94
Buddy Hield	70	72	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-8	21	12.1	14.0	-1.90	14.5	15.8	-1.29
Tyrese Haliburton	77	79	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	2	1	12.2	14.5	-2.31	15.0	14.6	0.42
Chris Duarte	8	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	11	-17	17.4	12.3	5.03	13.0	15.1	-2.09
T.J. McConnell	18	19	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	11	-17	15.0	12.3	2.74	15.6	14.8	0.85
Jalen Smith	28	29	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.02	-15	20	-35	15.7	11.6	4.04	13.1	15.6	-2.58
Oshae Brissett	46	47	-0.49	0.99	-1.49	-0.20	-10	15	-25	14.3	11.5	2.79	15.0	14.9	0.16
Bennedict Mathurin	54	54	-0.49	0.99	-1.49	-0.17	-11	16	-27	14.3	11.0	3.31	14.5	15.4	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.45,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 87, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.32,0.28,1	89.6%
DEN 103, LAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.16,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.68,0.53,1	89.6%
OKC 89, NOH 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.27,1	89.3%