NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	9.4 [101]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +43.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	6.4 [302]		LVP	Anthony Carter (DEN): -22.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.19,0.29	0.01	0.27	-0.02	13	51%	0.32	1	-0.03	9	67%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.26	0.02	0.04	20	81%	0.43	3	-0.19	8	87%	0.02
Nene	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0,0	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.02	14	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.08	0.03	0.01	7	40%	0.04	3	-0.10	6	33%	-0.06
Dahntay Jones	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	4	0%	-0.11	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.43	0.43	0.17	0.25	-0.01	28	58%	0.52	1	-0.08	13	92%	0.17
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.01	13	50%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	9	57%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.10
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	6	42%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.03	-0.01	8	33%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	5	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	4	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.8	38.0	19.8	28.2	3.6	46.0	164.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -30.2%

LAL +35.2%

LAL +34.6%

LAL +6.7%

LAL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.9	15.5	106.2	108.2	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	10.9	15.5	15.9	13.8
LAL	16.3	14.8	17.2	15.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	16	14	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.04	4	-6	10	13.6	13.9	-0.24	14.6	16.1	-1.51
Dahntay Jones	29	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-5	8	15.4	13.2	2.22	18.0	14.9	3.09
Nene	64	65	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-1	0	13.8	13.8	-0.04	16.5	14.7	1.81
Chris Andersen	47	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	1	-4	14.7	13.0	1.66	14.7	17.0	-2.26
Chauncey Billups	83	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.57	4	-6	10	13.8	13.8	0.05	15.9	15.8	0.08
Kenyon Martin	81	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-3	4	13.6	14.9	-1.33	16.0	15.1	0.96
J.R. Smith	51	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.31	-8	6	-14	13.1	14.7	-1.57	15.1	16.7	-1.58
Carmelo Anthony	82	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.55	-3	1	-4	13.8	14.2	-0.44	16.0	15.1	0.87
Anthony Carter	36	37	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.38	-13	11	-24	13.9	13.8	0.06	16.0	15.8	0.22

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	61	62	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.60	5	-3	8	16.3	15.2	1.07	14.0	13.6	0.35
Lamar Odom	66	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	-4	10	15.5	16.7	-1.24	14.3	12.9	1.35
Pau Gasol	85	83	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.56	-3	5	-8	16.1	14.0	2.13	14.1	11.9	2.22
Luke Walton	28	27	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-7	16	15.7	15.9	-0.21	12.8	14.2	-1.45
Trevor Ariza	58	58	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	4	-6	15.9	15.9	-0.01	13.6	14.2	-0.55
Kobe Bryant	85	86	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.51	-5	7	-12	16.2	13.5	2.70	14.2	10.5	3.70
Josh Powell	10	10	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-3	8	15.1	16.0	-0.85	10.3	14.2	-3.93
Jordan Farmar	20	19	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.10	4	-2	6	15.8	15.9	-0.08	12.9	14.0	-1.09
DJ Mbenga	1	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	1	0	7.0	16.0	-8.96	7.0	14.0	-6.97
Andrew Bynum	32	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	7	-12	16.5	15.6	0.95	13.6	13.9	-0.29
Shannon Brown	13	13	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	7	-12	14.0	16.2	-2.15	13.5	13.9	-0.33
Sasha Vujacic	26	26	-0.23	0.72	-0.95	-0.23	0	2	-2	15.0	16.2	-1.18	14.5	13.6	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.16,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.68,0.53,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, LAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.57,1	91.7%
CHH 80, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.43,0.58,1	91.1%
MIN 94, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.68,0.73,1	90.2%