NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	2.2 [391]		MVP	Saddiq Bey (DET): +25.9%
New Orleans Pelicans	104		Comeback	1.5 [1199]		LVP	CJ McCollum (NOP): -17.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Saddiq Bey	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.17	0.08	-0.01	17	69%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	10	58%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jalen Duren	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	5	100%	0.15	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Hamidou Diallo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jaden Ivey	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Marvin Bagley III	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Knox II	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	8	28%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Killian Hayes	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,-0.07,-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	0.01	17	50%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	0.00	16	67%	0.30	4	-0.10	11	64%	-0.03
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.08	0.03	13	67%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	7	106%	0.25	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	16	44%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	23%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	46%	0.00	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	0.00	11	33%	-0.08	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.3	29.5	14.5	26.4	2.5	33.2	133.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +38.8%

NOP +7.7%

NOP +17.1%

DET -15.4%

NOP +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NOP	NBA	DET	NOP	NBA
this game	15.1	13.9	14.4	98.0	105.1	113.4
season	14.6	14.2		109.6	113.4
opponent	14.6	14.2		111.6	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.3	15.9	14.5	16.9	15.1
NOP	12.9	12.4	15.5	15.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Duren	56	55	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.33	11	-17	28	14.7	15.5	-0.85	14.0	13.7	0.25
Hamidou Diallo	18	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-5	4	15.9	14.9	1.00	15.2	13.6	1.65
Saddiq Bey	49	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.29	6	-12	18	14.9	15.3	-0.42	14.7	13.1	1.59
Jaden Ivey	46	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-3	0	15.1	15.0	0.07	13.9	13.8	0.08
Alec Burks	46	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-3	0	14.7	15.4	-0.73	13.7	14.0	-0.30
Killian Hayes	68	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	-1	-5	4	14.7	15.8	-1.09	13.2	15.2	-1.98
Kevin Knox II	30	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	2	-10	16.0	14.7	1.33	14.8	13.5	1.31
Isaiah Stewart	61	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-6	6	14.9	15.3	-0.35	13.6	14.2	-0.60
Cory Joseph	40	40	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-3	0	16.1	14.4	1.67	15.0	13.1	1.98
Bojan Bogdanovic	44	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	7	-20	14.8	15.3	-0.53	12.6	14.9	-2.22
Marvin Bagley III	42	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	9	-24	15.3	14.9	0.41	13.2	14.3	-1.10

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	57	58	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-5	16	14.3	13.3	1.05	15.8	14.1	1.72
Devonte' Graham	25	24	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	-6	18	13.8	13.9	-0.04	15.6	14.9	0.68
Larry Nance Jr.	57	59	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	2	2	14.0	13.7	0.23	15.4	14.7	0.70
Naji Marshall	60	62	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	13.9	13.8	0.16	15.1	15.0	0.07
Jose Alvarado	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-5	16	12.7	14.9	-2.20	14.8	15.3	-0.45
Zion Williamson	73	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.23	1	5	-4	13.4	15.1	-1.64	14.4	16.6	-2.18
Trey Murphy III	71	71	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.41	-7	13	-20	14.5	12.2	2.36	14.9	15.6	-0.68
Dyson Daniels	53	53	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	7	-8	13.7	14.0	-0.33	15.1	15.0	0.13
CJ McCollum	54	58	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.12	-3	9	-12	14.1	13.6	0.49	15.0	15.2	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.77,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 92, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.4%
CHA 93, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.9,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.93,0.98,0.85,0.92,1	93.3%
MIL 117, DEN 121	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.57,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.84,0.95,1	93.1%