NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	109		Excitement	9.3 [143]		MVP	Grayson Allen (MIL): +32.6%
New York Knicks	103		Comeback	1.8 [955]		LVP	Jalen Brunson (NYK): -14.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grayson Allen	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.33	0.02	0.31	0.00	9	55%	0.36	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.11	0.00	25	60%	0.30	3	-0.09	12	75%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.01	0.09	-0.06	8	45%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Jrue Holiday	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	19	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
George Hill	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jevon Carter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	13	38%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
AJ Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.10	0.00	9	75%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.04	0.01	15	67%	0.18	3	-0.12	9	89%	0.01
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Cam Reddish	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	1	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	24	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	22	35%	-0.12	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	23.6	15.3	28.7	1.7	43.2	139.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +68.7%

MIL +10.4%

NYK -31.8%

MIL +5.8%

NYK -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NYK	NBA	MIL	NYK	NBA
this game	14.2	16.0	14.4	114.7	107.3	113.4
season	14.0	15.1		113.8	115.6
opponent	14.4	14.2		112.9	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	14.4	16.3	12.7	14.2
NYK	15.8	15.0	18.0	15.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Connaughton	46	48	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.15	20	-14	34	13.5	14.8	-1.36	16.5	15.5	1.06
Jrue Holiday	67	69	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-4	14	14.0	14.5	-0.49	16.2	15.5	0.71
Bobby Portis	47	46	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-3	12	15.1	13.2	1.96	17.0	15.1	1.90
Brook Lopez	67	68	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	5	-4	14.5	13.2	1.29	15.7	16.7	-1.02
George Hill	19	19	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-5	16	14.2	14.2	-0.00	16.9	15.8	1.13
Grayson Allen	63	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.41	-4	10	-14	14.2	14.1	0.05	15.7	16.6	-0.89
Wesley Matthews	27	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	8	-10	14.2	14.1	0.09	14.8	16.4	-1.57
Giannis Antetokounmpo	73	75	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.06	-5	11	-16	13.8	15.4	-1.57	16.1	15.5	0.66
Jevon Carter	66	66	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.20	-10	16	-26	14.1	14.4	-0.32	15.3	17.4	-2.10

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	21	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-3	0	16.6	15.8	0.74	13.8	14.3	-0.45
Isaiah Hartenstein	19	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.03	-6	0	-6	17.5	15.6	1.85	15.6	13.8	1.81
Immanuel Quickley	37	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-3	0	15.8	16.1	-0.33	14.1	14.2	-0.02
Cam Reddish	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-5	4	14.2	16.8	-2.60	14.3	14.1	0.16
Obi Toppin	29	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.14	-2	-4	2	13.8	16.9	-3.10	14.6	14.0	0.62
Mitchell Robinson	66	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-10	14	16.4	15.2	1.20	14.2	14.1	0.08
Quentin Grimes	66	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	16.8	14.2	2.60	14.1	14.3	-0.16
RJ Barrett	68	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	15.5	17.1	-1.63	13.8	15.2	-1.48
Jalen Brunson	67	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-4	2	16.2	15.5	0.68	14.5	13.3	1.19
Julius Randle	77	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	1	-8	16.3	14.7	1.56	13.8	15.8	-1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 110, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.42,0	92.7%
ORL 107, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,0	92.5%
UTA 97, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.15,0.05,0	92.5%