NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	112		Excitement	11.1 [46]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +30.3%
Miami Heat	117		Comeback	4.8 [515]		LVP	Terry Rozier (CHA): -42.3%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Smith Jr.	0.28	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.03	0.24	-0.01	9	67%	0.31	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.11	0.00	4	87%	0.24	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.02
Jalen McDaniels	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	10	73%	0.25	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Richards	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	4	91%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
P.J. Washington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.05	-0.00	9	45%	0.07	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.04
JT Thor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Theo Maledon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.07,0.07,0.22,0.11,0.11,-0.11	0.16	-0.24	0.03	20	72%	0.25	3	-0.36	0	0%	0.00
James Bouknight	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	5	8%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	-0.42	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.24,-0.42	-0.05	-0.36	0.01	25	41%	-0.38	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.3	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.00	19	66%	0.52	2	-0.22	15	87%	0.07
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	6	71%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.07	0.16	-0.02	15	50%	0.26	5	-0.15	6	100%	0.10
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	10	61%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	11	46%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Caleb Martin	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Max Strus	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	15	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.5	2.5	26.4	14.7	33.3	2.3	30.4	2.5	19.1	158.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -26.7%

MIA +57.5%

CHA -21.2%

MIA +46.4%

CHA -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	15.8	14.4	100.9	112.5	113.4
season	14.0	15.1		107.8	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.3		112.1	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHA	13.7	14.0	12.2	17.2	11.4	13.9
MIA	15.2	14.2	18.1	15.5	16.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Smith Jr.	68	65	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.02	10	-15	25	15.0	12.1	2.82	15.8	15.8	-0.07
Mason Plumlee	81	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-9	13	14.1	13.3	0.82	15.6	16.2	-0.64
Theo Maledon	16	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-1	-3	10.4	14.5	-4.08	17.1	15.6	1.50
JT Thor	5	4	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.10	-11	6	-17	25.2	13.3	11.87	8.5	16.1	-7.57
Terry Rozier	93	87	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-6	7	14.2	12.1	2.09	15.3	18.4	-3.15
James Bouknight	35	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	7	-19	13.6	14.0	-0.43	16.8	15.3	1.54
Nick Richards	30	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	4	-13	13.3	14.1	-0.82	16.2	15.6	0.64
Kelly Oubre Jr.	81	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-7	9	13.9	13.9	-0.00	15.9	15.4	0.53
Jalen McDaniels	69	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	0	-5	14.3	13.1	1.28	16.3	14.9	1.39
P.J. Washington	77	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-4	3	12.2	17.7	-5.49	15.5	16.5	-1.05

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	83	88	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-6	17	16.5	13.1	3.36	13.2	16.3	-3.13
Bam Adebayo	76	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-4	13	15.1	17.5	-2.36	14.9	11.2	3.71
Caleb Martin	63	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	1	3	14.7	17.4	-2.74	14.0	13.6	0.38
Gabe Vincent	73	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	3	-1	16.0	15.2	0.88	13.9	13.9	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	76	81	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	5	-5	15.8	15.7	0.14	13.9	13.9	-0.00
Max Strus	77	84	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	2	1	15.0	18.0	-2.95	14.8	11.0	3.74
Duncan Robinson	44	45	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	5	-5	16.9	15.0	1.92	13.2	14.3	-1.08
Dewayne Dedmon	28	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	9	-13	17.5	15.1	2.36	11.2	14.9	-3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.82,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.67,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 111, PHX 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.4,0.42,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.37,0.43,0.42,1	90.0%
UTA 81, SAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.47,0.61,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.71,0.58,1	88.8%
NJN 96, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.8,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.72,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.73,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.78,0.85,1	88.4%