NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	110		Excitement	8.3 [280]		MVP	Jerami Grant (POR): +50.3%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	15.8 [54]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -11.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.50	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.5	0.14	0.38	0.02	15	77%	0.58	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	0.39	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.39	-0.01	0.40	-0.00	5	71%	0.50	5	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01
Anfernee Simons	0.37	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.29,0.37	0.06	0.29	-0.01	20	58%	0.46	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.07
Justise Winslow	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nassir Little	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaedon Sharpe	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Eubanks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	12	58%	0.10	4	-0.12	9	89%	-0.05
Trendon Watford	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.46	0.46	0.14	0.33	-0.00	10	80%	0.46	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.01	8	88%	0.21	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	13	52%	0.17	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.05
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	71%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.08	0.01	14	47%	0.10	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.09
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	11	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.04	-0.16	-0.00	14	55%	0.11	1	-0.22	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	24.4	14.6	27.3	2.7	35.7	129.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +73.3%

MIA -5.6%

MIA -17.3%

MIA -2.3%

POR +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	15.4	14.4	115.8	110.3	113.4
season	14.7	15.1		113.4	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.1		112.1	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	13.6	14.6	14.3	16.1	14.6
MIA	14.1	14.8	15.7	17.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	55	57	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.38	15	-12	27	14.6	14.6	0.00	16.3	14.1	2.16
Josh Hart	75	77	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.39	13	-10	23	12.9	20.8	-7.85	15.9	13.3	2.64
Damian Lillard	70	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.48	6	-3	9	13.3	18.3	-5.05	15.8	14.2	1.69
Jerami Grant	74	73	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.54	3	0	3	13.4	19.0	-5.65	15.4	15.2	0.19
Anfernee Simons	62	63	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.55	-1	4	-5	15.3	13.3	1.99	14.7	16.6	-1.93
Drew Eubanks	24	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	2	-1	17.0	13.8	3.27	14.6	15.7	-1.12
Trendon Watford	21	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.12	0	3	-3	19.0	13.4	5.65	15.2	15.4	-0.19
Nassir Little	14	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	10	-17	19.4	13.8	5.58	11.4	16.0	-4.63
Shaedon Sharpe	21	22	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.06	-4	7	-11	19.2	13.3	5.89	15.2	15.4	-0.21
Jusuf Nurkic	59	60	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	-0.09	-11	14	-25	13.8	15.9	-2.12	15.3	15.5	-0.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	58	58	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-5	7	15.3	15.5	-0.20	14.5	14.8	-0.30
Dewayne Dedmon	31	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	2	-7	15.5	15.3	0.18	12.0	15.8	-3.75
Max Strus	47	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-5	7	15.4	15.3	0.11	17.1	12.1	5.00
Caleb Martin	73	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	1	-5	15.5	15.2	0.30	13.4	18.2	-4.83
Bam Adebayo	66	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.48	2	-5	7	15.3	15.5	-0.18	15.8	12.0	3.75
Gabe Vincent	72	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	2	-7	15.4	15.2	0.20	14.6	14.6	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	70	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	1	-5	15.0	16.4	-1.46	15.3	13.0	2.35
Jimmy Butler	68	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.53	-3	0	-3	15.7	14.7	1.05	13.6	17.4	-3.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.92,0.81,0.91,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.57,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 103, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.54,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.78,0.73,0	93.0%
OKC 103, LAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.73,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.42,0	91.9%
HOU 109, SEA 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.79,0.55,0.58,0	91.8%