NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	117		Excitement	9.3 [109]		MVP	Terry Rozier (CHA): +42.4%
Charlotte Hornets	123		Comeback	2.8 [587]		LVP	Devin Vassell (SAS): -13.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joshua Primo	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	7	71%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	21	50%	0.17	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.02
Zach Collins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.06	0.18	-0.13	-0.00	24	66%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jakob Poeltl	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	52%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Keita Bates-Diop	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Doug McDermott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Lonnie Walker IV	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	0.01	-0.13	0.01	13	54%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.22	0.20	-0.00	18	76%	0.44	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.05
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.07	0.02	7	67%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	16	63%	0.23	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.09
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	10	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
JT Thor	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	12	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	13	58%	0.08	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	36%	-0.02	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.3	25.6	14.6	27.6	1.8	33.5	128.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +23.9%

CHA +26.4%

SAS -3.7%

CHA +3.4%

CHA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	13.5	14.3	14.5	111.4	120.6	110.8
season	13.9	14.0		111.3	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.8	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.7	13.6	13.2	14.8	13.5
CHA	13.0	13.5	15.1	15.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	47	50	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-11	16	12.9	14.1	-1.18	15.1	13.5	1.62
Zach Collins	42	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-2	-2	13.4	13.6	-0.23	13.8	14.6	-0.85
Keita Bates-Diop	12	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-2	-2	14.2	13.5	0.70	11.5	14.6	-3.10
Lonnie Walker IV	42	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-2	-2	12.9	14.0	-1.02	13.7	14.7	-1.02
Tre Jones	44	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-2	-2	12.8	14.1	-1.29	14.8	13.9	0.84
Keldon Johnson	79	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-7	8	13.8	12.6	1.23	14.7	13.0	1.75
Devin Vassell	63	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-3	0	14.1	12.7	1.34	14.7	13.6	1.10
Jakob Poeltl	63	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	13.6	13.4	0.23	14.6	13.8	0.85
Dejounte Murray	79	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	-1	-4	13.6	13.5	0.06	13.2	17.4	-4.15
Joshua Primo	54	50	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.22	-10	4	-14	14.0	13.1	0.86	14.5	14.1	0.48

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Washington	79	84	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.34	9	-3	12	13.6	16.8	-3.27	13.5	13.5	0.02
LaMelo Ball	61	66	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	-2	10	13.4	15.7	-2.32	13.7	13.3	0.46
Miles Bridges	79	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	6	-6	14.4	13.8	0.66	13.4	13.8	-0.38
Terry Rozier	75	78	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	5	-4	14.6	13.5	1.11	13.4	14.0	-0.57
Cody Martin	64	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	7	-8	15.6	12.1	3.49	13.4	13.8	-0.46
Mason Plumlee	53	54	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.30	-5	11	-16	13.8	14.8	-0.97	13.0	14.1	-1.04
JT Thor	11	12	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	0	6	12.7	14.5	-1.76	16.3	13.2	3.15
Kelly Oubre Jr.	53	54	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	1	4	14.7	13.9	0.84	13.3	13.8	-0.55
Montrezl Harrell	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.13	7	-1	8	14.8	14.0	0.81	14.3	13.2	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.29,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 106, NYK 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.88,0.94,1,1	91.8%
DEN 94, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.64,0.86,0.99,1	91.8%
WAS 87, ORL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	91.7%