NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	157		Excitement	13.6 [9]		MVP	Raul Neto (WAS): +33.0%
Washington Wizards	153		Comeback	3.4 [440]		LVP	Thomas Bryant (WAS): -8.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.29	0.17	0.14	0.02	15	74%	0.32	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.01
Lonnie Walker IV	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.32,0.39,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.03	0.24	-0.00	17	57%	0.35	3	-0.08	6	50%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.17,0.17	0.20	-0.03	0.00	20	68%	0.19	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.05
Devin Vassell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.06	0.01	11	48%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.08
Keita Bates-Diop	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	3	75%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Dejounte Murray	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.02,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	20	67%	0.32	6	-0.27	6	100%	0.05
Doug McDermott	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tomas Satoransky	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tre Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	3	55%	0.02	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Zach Collins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raul Neto	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.33	0.33	0.14	0.19	0.00	15	73%	0.46	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.17	0.03	14	71%	0.31	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.08
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.10	0.02	9	85%	0.26	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.01
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.07	0.01	7	75%	0.18	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.14	-0.09	0.02	27	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Cassius Winston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.04	0.00	10	70%	0.10	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	53%	0.11	4	-0.18	1	0%	-0.03
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	24.8	2.0	32.3	5.7	26.8	1.7	37.2	2.8	15.0	2.4	17.6	168.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -24.5%

SAS +24.3%

SAS +32.0%

SAS +7.1%

SAS +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	WAS	NBA	SAS	WAS	NBA
this game	13.7	14.5	14.5	127.6	123.4	110.8
season	13.9	14.9		111.3	109.8
opponent	14.4	14.6		113.1	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	12.9	13.0	13.2	13.3	20.2	13.6
WAS	15.9	14.1	12.1	15.5	15.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keldon Johnson	97	98	0.94	-0.44	1.37	0.47	16	-12	28	13.7	13.7	0.04	14.6	14.0	0.62
Jakob Poeltl	78	76	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.62	1	3	-2	13.5	14.1	-0.61	14.7	14.2	0.53
Lonnie Walker IV	74	73	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.34	9	-5	14	13.7	13.7	-0.02	14.2	14.8	-0.60
Tre Jones	33	32	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	-2	8	13.9	13.6	0.35	14.9	14.3	0.56
Dejounte Murray	91	92	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.25	-2	6	-8	13.7	13.7	-0.05	14.3	14.9	-0.56
Devin Vassell	91	91	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.34	-7	11	-18	14.0	12.9	1.09	14.4	14.6	-0.20
Tomas Satoransky	20	21	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	1	2	12.5	13.9	-1.35	14.3	14.5	-0.25
Zach Collins	36	37	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	1	2	12.5	14.2	-1.71	14.3	14.6	-0.24
Doug McDermott	58	61	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	4	-4	13.7	13.7	-0.02	14.7	14.3	0.39
Keita Bates-Diop	29	30	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.09	-9	13	-22	13.6	13.7	-0.08	14.0	14.6	-0.65

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Kispert	65	66	0.60	-1.10	1.69	0.21	13	-17	30	14.6	14.4	0.19	14.4	12.9	1.53
Ish Smith	45	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-3	2	15.0	14.2	0.87	14.2	13.4	0.88
Kyle Kuzma	98	98	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-10	16	14.4	14.9	-0.55	13.7	13.5	0.25
Cassius Winston	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	1	-6	15.7	14.4	1.27	12.9	13.7	-0.86
Thomas Bryant	36	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	1	-6	13.8	14.8	-0.93	12.1	14.3	-2.16
Rui Hachimura	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	5	-14	13.6	14.9	-1.28	14.1	13.5	0.70
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	92	90	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.25	2	-6	8	14.3	14.9	-0.56	13.6	13.9	-0.35
Anthony Gill	16	16	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	1	-6	16.4	14.2	2.23	14.8	13.5	1.30
Deni Avdija	79	79	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	3	-10	14.2	15.0	-0.76	13.9	13.4	0.50
Raul Neto	77	78	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.56	-3	-1	-2	14.5	14.5	0.04	13.2	14.5	-1.24
Daniel Gafford	61	61	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.61	-6	2	-8	15.0	14.0	1.03	13.3	14.1	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.36,0.65,0.47,0.21,0.12,0.02,0.04,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.77,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 100, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.16,0.03,0.15,0	86.4%
SAS 83, SAC 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.53,0.53,0.32,0.11,0.1,0.09,0	86.1%
TOR 94, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.32,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.06,0.04,0	86.0%