NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	100		Excitement	7.4 [382]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +21.9%
Atlanta Hawks	97		Comeback	3.0 [240]		LVP	Tyronn Lue (ATL): -16.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.22	0.02	0.20	0.01	18	67%	0.37	6	-0.15	10	90%	0.05
Chris Webber	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.01	22	61%	0.22	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Maurice Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	18	46%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	55%	0.05	2	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Brad Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.02	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	11	65%	0.13	2	-0.07	12	83%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	20	47%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	0%	-0.08
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	14	48%	-0.03	2	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Jason Collier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16	-0.17	-0.03	-0.16	-0.02	12	58%	-0.03	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.8	28.2	16.4	24.3	1.8	37.2	133.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +30.1%

SAC +12.8%

ATL -2.2%

SAC +9.2%

SAC +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ATL	NBA	SAC	ATL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.5	102.0	99.0	104.0
season	14.7	15.6		108.1	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.6		108.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.5	14.8	14.8	15.1	14.8
ATL	14.3	15.2	14.0	14.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	90	90	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-4	11	14.9	14.4	0.48	14.6	14.4	0.21
Darius Songaila	31	32	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-11	25	15.0	14.7	0.22	15.8	14.0	1.84
Peja Stojakovic	79	80	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.36	1	2	-1	14.4	16.7	-2.38	14.0	17.3	-3.32
Maurice Evans	42	43	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	-4	11	15.3	14.5	0.78	15.3	14.0	1.30
Brad Miller	76	76	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.32	1	2	-1	15.0	14.0	0.99	15.0	13.0	2.03
Chris Webber	74	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	6	-9	14.2	16.6	-2.40	14.0	16.5	-2.50
Doug Christie	69	67	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.35	-9	12	-21	14.7	15.1	-0.41	14.4	15.0	-0.67
Kevin Martin	14	14	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.02	3	0	3	16.4	14.5	1.88	16.7	14.2	2.50
Greg Ostertag	15	14	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	9	-15	16.3	14.6	1.71	12.5	14.9	-2.42

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collier	35	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	16.5	13.5	2.98	14.9	14.8	0.16
Royal Ivey	21	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	2	-7	12.6	15.1	-2.48	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Al Harrington	84	85	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.33	5	-8	13	15.2	10.6	4.67	15.1	12.7	2.45
Predrag Drobnjak	60	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.40	6	-9	15	13.8	15.8	-2.03	14.9	14.6	0.31
Josh Smith	67	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-4	5	15.2	13.3	1.87	15.0	14.4	0.58
Josh Childress	44	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	3	-9	13.0	15.8	-2.81	14.6	15.0	-0.34
Tyronn Lue	77	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-5	7	15.1	12.6	2.48	15.0	14.2	0.80
Boris Diaw	19	18	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	9	-21	11.8	15.2	-3.45	13.1	15.2	-2.16
Antoine Walker	83	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-1	-1	14.6	14.2	0.44	14.7	15.5	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.16,0.03,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 113, CHA 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.3,0.1,0.15,0.53,0.31,0.08,0.06,0.15,0	91.7%
NYK 111, TOR 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.41,0.27,0.16,0.23,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.04,0	91.7%
DEN 111, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.03,0,0	91.6%