NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	120		Excitement	10.3 [60]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (CHI): +87.4%
Washington Wizards	119		Comeback	14.4 [139]		LVP	Matt Thomas (CHI): -9.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.87	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.09,-0.04,-0.15,0.87	-0.01	0.88	-0.01	22	52%	0.99	4	-0.12	10	70%	0.04
Zach LaVine	0.23	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.34,0.23	0.18	0.07	0.03	22	70%	0.37	4	-0.15	6	100%	0.05
Nikola Vucevic	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.23,0.23,0.14	0.06	0.09	0.01	15	71%	0.27	5	-0.13	1	100%	0.02
Coby White	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.02	14	67%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	2	112%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Troy Brown Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Thomas	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.68	0.68	0.16	0.51	-0.01	18	71%	0.75	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.05	0.02	10	86%	0.22	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.03	0.15	-0.01	20	51%	0.30	2	-0.11	13	85%	0.07
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tremont Waters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alize Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.01	6	64%	0.14	1	-0.16	2	100%	0.04
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	14	46%	0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.4	29.2	13.0	30.5	2.0	41.3	148.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +27.7%

CHI +12.0%

CHI +0.1%

CHI +7.0%

CHI +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	13.9	13.6	14.5	115.4	113.3	110.8
season	14.5	14.9		110.9	109.8
opponent	14.4	14.5		113.1	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	15.0	12.6	13.8	13.9
WAS	12.3	13.8	15.6	12.9	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	76	79	1.32	-0.82	2.14	0.94	13	-12	25	14.0	13.6	0.40	13.5	14.0	-0.44
DeMar DeRozan	77	76	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.48	12	-11	23	13.8	14.4	-0.64	13.8	13.2	0.58
Zach LaVine	80	83	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-4	9	13.9	13.9	0.08	13.8	13.1	0.68
Coby White	81	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.48	0	1	-1	14.3	12.6	1.76	13.7	13.5	0.19
Matt Thomas	27	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	2	-3	13.2	14.2	-1.01	13.6	13.6	0.00
Tyler Cook	6	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	3	-5	16.2	13.8	2.37	12.2	13.7	-1.55
Ayo Dosunmu	48	49	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.28	-17	18	-35	13.6	14.2	-0.53	12.8	14.3	-1.48
Troy Brown Jr.	65	64	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.11	-4	5	-9	14.1	13.7	0.43	13.7	13.6	0.07
Derrick Jones Jr.	60	59	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.20	-1	2	-3	13.6	14.3	-0.71	14.1	13.0	1.04

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tremont Waters	19	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-5	9	12.2	14.0	-1.80	15.1	13.7	1.43
Alize Johnson	6	5	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.08	-3	2	-5	12.5	13.7	-1.20	19.2	13.7	5.53
Deni Avdija	74	73	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-2	3	13.6	13.6	0.02	13.7	14.4	-0.65
Anthony Gill	58	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-4	7	12.2	15.3	-3.10	14.0	13.8	0.18
Corey Kispert	64	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-1	1	13.7	13.5	0.15	13.6	14.4	-0.76
Bradley Beal	93	92	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.49	3	-4	7	13.6	13.7	-0.04	14.1	13.0	1.05
Kyle Kuzma	88	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.52	4	-5	9	13.5	14.3	-0.79	14.1	12.9	1.20
Daniel Gafford	40	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	11	-23	15.6	12.4	3.18	13.7	14.1	-0.32
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	85	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.63	-5	4	-9	14.2	11.6	2.52	13.4	16.1	-2.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.77,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.57,0.63,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.84,0	91.6%
DET 93, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0	91.6%
NJN 89, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.42,0	91.3%