NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	5.6 [724]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (CHI): +12.7%
Toronto Raptors	108		Comeback	1.3 [797]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): -22.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.00	19	54%	0.16	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.04
Zach LaVine	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	16	59%	0.11	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Troy Brown Jr.	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alize Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Patrick Williams	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	4	73%	0.12	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Lonzo Ball	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	11	68%	0.12	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
OG Anunoby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	17	61%	0.15	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	7	69%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.03	0.03	15	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalano Banton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	44%	0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	8	72%	0.10	6	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	39%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.11,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.10	0.01	13	54%	-0.03	8	-0.20	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	24.0	14.4	28.8	1.7	39.6	135.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +23.6%

CHI +14.8%

TOR -15.1%

CHI +23.5%

CHI +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	13.9	14.5	114.4	109.1	110.8
season	14.5	14.9		110.9	111.3
opponent	14.8	14.5		109.9	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	14.6	16.4	15.2	15.5
TOR	13.7	15.4	12.4	14.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	71	71	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-11	25	15.2	16.4	-1.27	14.2	13.1	1.12
DeMar DeRozan	76	79	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-4	11	14.5	19.0	-4.53	13.3	16.3	-3.06
Lonzo Ball	77	79	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-6	15	15.1	16.9	-1.83	14.5	11.5	3.02
Zach LaVine	71	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	3	-3	16.1	13.9	2.15	13.9	14.0	-0.18
Alex Caruso	55	57	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.52	-7	10	-17	15.7	15.3	0.37	13.7	14.2	-0.57
Javonte Green	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	0	3	16.9	15.0	1.92	13.5	14.1	-0.57
Troy Brown Jr.	31	33	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	1	1	16.3	15.1	1.12	13.9	13.9	-0.05
Patrick Williams	54	54	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	7	-11	15.2	15.9	-0.74	14.5	13.2	1.26
Alize Johnson	25	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.16	-9	12	-21	17.0	15.0	1.97	13.0	14.2	-1.23

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalano Banton	13	11	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-7	11	12.9	14.1	-1.14	12.4	15.9	-3.53
Goran Dragic	31	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.20	5	-8	13	13.3	14.2	-0.85	14.9	15.8	-0.86
Svi Mykhailiuk	25	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-6	9	13.0	14.2	-1.22	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Khem Birch	38	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-3	3	14.9	13.3	1.64	16.5	14.9	1.55
OG Anunoby	78	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.41	7	-10	17	13.8	14.3	-0.48	15.9	13.9	2.01
Chris Boucher	10	9	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	7	-17	15.3	13.8	1.55	14.4	15.6	-1.16
Gary Trent Jr.	73	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-4	5	13.7	14.4	-0.64	15.6	15.1	0.52
Precious Achiuwa	57	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	4	-11	13.9	13.9	-0.03	15.5	15.5	-0.07
Scottie Barnes	82	80	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	7	-17	14.1	13.1	0.96	15.6	14.8	0.81
Fred VanVleet	88	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.31	-8	5	-13	14.0	13.1	0.92	15.2	17.8	-2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.22,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 81, ATL 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.02,0	94.5%
ATL 76, PHI 69	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.16,0.09,0.02,0	94.5%
NOH 96, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.25,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	94.2%