NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	114		Excitement	9.3 [108]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +53.5%
Boston Celtics	119		Comeback	9.8 [154]		LVP	Kent Bazemore (GSW): -24.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.31	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.31	0.29	0.05	0.03	27	76%	0.53	5	-0.22	8	75%	-0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.10	-0.01	15	63%	0.23	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Kevon Looney	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11	0.01	0.11	0.01	4	50%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Poole	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	10	52%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Gary Payton II	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Damion Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	6	42%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24	-0.04	-0.19	0.01	12	57%	-0.05	5	-0.19	4	50%	-0.16

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.53	0.53	0.30	0.29	0.06	25	76%	0.60	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.00	0.26	0.00	15	47%	0.28	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	6	79%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0,-0.11,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.09	0.01	20	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.03
Romeo Langford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.8	29.8	14.5	28.7	3.3	40.5	144.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -2.2%

BOS +16.5%

GSW -2.4%

BOS +36.0%

BOS +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	13.6	15.5	14.4	114.0	121.4	111.3
season	13.5	14.5		109.9	112.8
opponent	14.5	14.5		111.9	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.2	13.5	13.7	14.0	13.6
BOS	16.8	15.3	16.9	13.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Toscano-Anderson	52	52	0.46	-0.96	1.42	0.05	14	-19	33	13.6	13.7	-0.07	15.9	15.0	0.82
Gary Payton II	14	14	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-9	13	10.3	14.2	-3.89	17.7	15.1	2.61
Jordan Poole	48	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-8	11	14.1	13.2	0.83	14.2	16.7	-2.48
Damion Lee	28	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	7	-19	13.2	13.8	-0.53	14.1	16.0	-1.91
Andrew Wiggins	85	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-4	3	13.5	14.3	-0.75	15.6	14.9	0.64
Kevon Looney	51	48	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	2	-9	14.7	12.5	2.20	15.7	15.3	0.45
Stephen Curry	77	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.34	-7	2	-9	13.2	15.2	-2.01	15.7	14.5	1.22
Draymond Green	78	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	3	-11	13.3	14.8	-1.52	15.9	14.0	1.85
Kent Bazemore	67	64	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.42	-11	6	-17	14.4	12.0	2.48	15.1	16.1	-1.02

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	82	83	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-7	19	15.2	16.9	-1.74	14.1	11.2	2.89
Marcus Smart	75	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-4	13	15.8	14.3	1.48	13.3	14.7	-1.33
Kemba Walker	78	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	2	1	15.4	15.6	-0.15	13.5	14.2	-0.72
Jabari Parker	31	33	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.22	6	-1	7	14.1	16.1	-1.98	13.4	13.7	-0.31
Tristan Thompson	57	57	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	0	5	16.4	14.3	2.08	13.6	13.6	0.04
Payton Pritchard	44	45	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	-3	11	15.3	15.6	-0.25	14.0	13.3	0.75
Grant Williams	25	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	9	-13	15.2	15.6	-0.32	12.4	14.1	-1.69
Semi Ojeleye	41	41	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	10	-15	17.3	14.2	3.12	14.4	13.1	1.25
Luke Kornet	12	11	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	11	-17	15.8	15.4	0.40	14.4	13.5	0.82
Romeo Langford	20	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	13	-21	14.7	15.7	-0.92	11.7	14.1	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.1,0.36,0.31,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 89, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.37,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.96,1	90.8%
LAL 106, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.32,0.58,1	89.7%
DET 108, DAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.27,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.43,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.68,0.84,1	88.5%