NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	119		Excitement	8.8 [161]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): +62.5%
Dallas Mavericks	117		Comeback	2.5 [188]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAS): -15.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.63	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.37,0.63	0.11	0.51	-0.01	25	57%	0.68	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Lonnie Walker IV	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.09	0.16	-0.00	8	76%	0.29	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.16	0.09	0.02	17	71%	0.27	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.13	-0.00	6	80%	0.23	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Derrick White	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Drew Eubanks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	62%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	5	50%	0.00	4	-0.15	4	75%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.13	0.01	17	69%	0.40	5	-0.17	8	87%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.14	0.01	14	57%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	4	100%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.00	0.03	21	67%	0.19	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Nicolo Melli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	15	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	1.6	26.4	14.6	25.9	1.7	35.5	133.3
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.0%

SAS +14.5%

DAL -15.7%

DAL -7.9%

SAS +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.0	15.5	14.4	122.7	119.4	111.3
season	14.6	15.0		109.8	114.3
opponent	14.4	14.2		112.4	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.9	14.0	12.6	16.0	14.0
DAL	16.1	14.3	14.1	18.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dejounte Murray	67	70	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.35	18	-16	34	14.1	13.9	0.21	16.2	13.9	2.23
Patty Mills	44	44	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.41	0	2	-2	14.1	14.0	0.11	15.7	15.4	0.29
Rudy Gay	44	43	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.49	-5	7	-12	14.3	13.8	0.56	15.6	15.5	0.07
Jakob Poeltl	72	73	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.06	13	-11	24	13.3	15.9	-2.57	16.0	14.0	1.99
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.35	-5	7	-12	13.9	14.4	-0.54	14.6	18.2	-3.60
Derrick White	66	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	5	-8	14.0	14.1	-0.13	15.1	16.4	-1.32
Lonnie Walker IV	38	39	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	2	-2	14.4	13.8	0.63	16.5	14.9	1.65
Keldon Johnson	58	60	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	-2	6	13.8	14.4	-0.58	15.2	15.9	-0.70
Drew Eubanks	23	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.24	-12	14	-26	15.7	13.5	2.21	14.7	15.7	-1.02

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Burke	19	19	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.07	12	-14	26	15.8	15.4	0.40	15.0	13.8	1.23
Dwight Powell	30	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-6	10	15.3	15.6	-0.37	15.1	13.5	1.53
Jalen Brunson	57	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.50	13	-15	28	15.8	15.1	0.64	14.8	12.9	1.80
Nicolo Melli	45	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	3	-8	16.1	15.1	1.01	13.6	14.4	-0.85
Dorian Finney-Smith	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-4	6	14.7	17.7	-3.01	13.8	14.5	-0.65
Kristaps Porzingis	74	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	2	-6	15.8	14.7	1.02	13.6	15.3	-1.70
Luka Doncic	75	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	4	-10	14.9	17.5	-2.62	13.5	15.6	-2.10
Josh Richardson	73	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.42	-9	7	-16	15.9	14.3	1.61	14.2	13.4	0.82
Tim Hardaway Jr.	46	43	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.21	-17	15	-32	15.9	15.2	0.74	13.8	14.1	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.4,0.54,0.43,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.03,0.15,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 106, DEN 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.34,0.2,0.07,0.09,0.08,0	92.2%
UTA 83, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.16,0	91.8%
NJN 95, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.16,0.31,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.08,0	91.8%