NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	124		Excitement	6.8 [429]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +95.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	125		Comeback	475.2 [3]		LVP	CJ McCollum (POR): -10.6%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.13	0.14	0.04	0.05	17	70%	0.17	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Eric Bledsoe	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	9	50%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Josh Hart	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.01	-0.03	13	62%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	69%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willy Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.03	0.10	-0.11	0.02	13	77%	0.14	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.08	0.03	-0.07	0.04	22	56%	0.02	5	-0.10	10	70%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.29,0.21,0.96	0.96	0.39	0.71	0.14	20	86%	1.05	4	-0.09	18	100%	0.30
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.04	0.04	10	81%	0.20	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	4	125%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nassir Little	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Robert Covington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	11	42%	-0.03	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.4	28.3	15.8	29.1	3.3	37.5	142.7
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -20.7%

POR +88.6%

NOP -26.7%

POR +6.9%

POR +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	POR	NBA	NOP	POR	NBA
this game	14.2	14.0	14.4	121.6	122.5	111.3
season	14.0	14.9		112.4	116.9
opponent	14.2	14.4		115.1	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	12.8	13.2	14.8	16.0	14.2
POR	14.8	14.0	14.5	12.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	50	51	0.31	-0.81	1.11	0.19	4	-5	9	15.0	13.4	1.56	14.2	13.9	0.22
Jaxson Hayes	41	41	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.08	6	-7	13	13.4	14.7	-1.25	14.8	13.5	1.26
Kira Lewis Jr.	20	22	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-7	13	12.4	14.6	-2.16	14.9	13.8	1.04
Willy Hernangomez	6	6	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-1	1	11.2	14.4	-3.21	12.3	14.2	-1.82
Zion Williamson	69	68	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	2	-5	14.7	13.1	1.57	13.8	14.6	-0.81
Josh Hart	61	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	1	-3	13.8	14.7	-0.91	14.4	13.5	0.82
Brandon Ingram	77	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.50	-4	3	-7	14.5	13.3	1.20	13.8	14.7	-0.89
Lonzo Ball	75	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.52	-4	3	-7	14.2	14.2	-0.05	13.8	14.6	-0.82
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	57	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.74	2	-3	5	12.3	16.6	-4.24	14.4	13.6	0.76
Eric Bledsoe	54	54	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.46	-10	9	-19	16.3	11.8	4.56	13.5	14.7	-1.25

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Covington	78	78	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.42	11	-10	21	13.4	16.2	-2.82	15.3	10.6	4.66
Gary Trent Jr.	68	69	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-7	15	14.2	13.8	0.38	13.6	15.5	-1.92
Damian Lillard	85	86	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-8	17	13.9	14.6	-0.72	14.4	12.8	1.63
Carmelo Anthony	66	64	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.55	1	0	1	14.7	12.9	1.75	13.5	15.3	-1.80
CJ McCollum	56	55	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.69	-8	9	-17	14.6	13.3	1.28	14.3	14.0	0.27
Rodney Hood	22	21	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	-1	3	13.1	14.3	-1.22	15.9	13.8	2.10
Derrick Jones Jr.	36	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	1	-1	12.9	14.7	-1.75	15.3	13.5	1.80
Enes Kanter	60	60	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.06	-7	8	-15	14.0	14.2	-0.20	13.7	14.9	-1.26
Nassir Little	39	39	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.04	-11	12	-23	15.3	13.3	1.95	12.3	15.4	-3.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.17,0.09,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, DEN 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.29,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.22,0.27,1	94.7%
ATL 93, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.16,1	94.3%
CHI 96, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,1	93.8%