NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	117		Excitement	5.3 [666]		MVP	Jalen Brunson (DAL): +19.3%
Dallas Mavericks	127		Comeback	1.9 [962]		LVP	Hamidou Diallo (DET): -14.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.15	-0.00	0.05	16	65%	0.12	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Cory Joseph	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.03	15	71%	0.13	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	4	100%	0.10	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Saddiq Bey	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	8	58%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tyler Cook	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Frank Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.01	0.06	7	69%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Saben Lee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Josh Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.04	10	57%	-0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	6	12%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.02	-0.02	12	74%	0.19	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	13	59%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	22	56%	0.11	3	-0.03	10	60%	-0.02
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	7	79%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.04	13	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.04	4	73%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Nicolo Melli	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.6	27.2	14.7	35.3	2.6	33.2	138.3
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +21.5%

DAL +6.4%

DAL +5.0%

DAL +17.2%

DET -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	14.4	121.9	132.3	111.3
season	15.0	15.0		107.0	114.3
opponent	14.4	14.2		112.4	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.8	16.6	14.0	13.3	14.9
DAL	14.8	14.1	14.8	16.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Cook	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.04	-3	-7	4	16.0	14.7	1.25	15.7	15.0	0.65
Isaiah Stewart	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.29	7	-17	24	14.0	15.3	-1.29	17.0	14.2	2.82
Jerami Grant	52	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-9	8	14.7	15.1	-0.38	15.6	14.5	1.14
Josh Jackson	60	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-14	18	14.4	15.7	-1.35	15.2	14.9	0.28
Frank Jackson	35	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-5	0	15.3	14.7	0.55	16.2	14.5	1.61
Saddiq Bey	54	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-7	4	15.1	14.6	0.47	14.4	16.0	-1.67
Hamidou Diallo	36	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	4	-18	15.7	14.4	1.35	14.9	15.2	-0.28
Wayne Ellington	39	39	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-2	-6	14.2	15.4	-1.18	14.3	15.6	-1.28
Mason Plumlee	65	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.09	-17	7	-24	15.3	14.0	1.29	14.2	17.0	-2.82

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorian Finney-Smith	71	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-2	14	14.9	15.8	-0.90	14.9	15.0	-0.18
Jalen Brunson	57	58	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	0	10	14.9	15.4	-0.53	14.5	15.6	-1.07
Kristaps Porzingis	68	67	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	5	0	14.5	16.6	-2.14	14.7	15.3	-0.58
Tim Hardaway Jr.	49	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-3	16	15.2	15.0	0.18	15.5	14.2	1.25
Willie Cauley-Stein	23	26	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.10	10	0	10	16.3	14.7	1.59	15.9	14.5	1.34
JJ Redick	25	25	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	6	-2	15.7	14.9	0.85	15.4	14.7	0.67
Nicolo Melli	12	11	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	7	-4	14.7	15.2	-0.49	14.3	15.0	-0.72
Josh Richardson	58	57	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.41	-14	24	-38	15.4	14.6	0.85	14.1	16.1	-1.93
Maxi Kleber	26	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	11	-12	15.1	15.1	-0.02	15.4	14.7	0.66
Dwight Powell	25	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	12	-14	14.6	15.3	-0.72	14.8	14.9	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
NOP 89, DAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
DAL 110, GSW 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.88,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.88,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.4%