NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	124		Excitement	11.9 [15]		MVP	Maxi Kleber (DAL): +68.6%
Denver Nuggets	117		Comeback	6.2 [132]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -9.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maxi Kleber	0.69	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.25,0.14,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69	0.04	0.64	-0.01	7	64%	0.71	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	7	75%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.15,0.15	-0.02	0.16	-0.00	15	44%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	5	70%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	58%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	11	44%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Josh Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,-0.04,-0.22,-0.09,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03	0.05	-0.04	0.04	22	64%	0.39	8	-0.42	15	67%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,-0.09,0.14,0.21,0.1,0.5,0.5,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.34	0.34	0.04	0.26	-0.03	31	53%	0.49	3	-0.15	10	60%	-0.16
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	9	75%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.09	0.00	7	57%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	7	69%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	0.01	19	52%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	30.9	0.6	30.4	14.8	26.4	2.7	35.5	1.8	13.0	156.0
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +75.6%

DAL +16.0%

DEN -28.8%

DEN -8.9%

DEN -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	15.4	14.4	114.8	108.3	111.3
season	15.0	15.0		114.3	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.4		112.3	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	13.5	14.8	16.5	12.2	13.0	14.1
DEN	14.8	13.5	15.5	17.2	17.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Doncic	88	87	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.25	14	-7	21	13.9	14.6	-0.71	15.4	15.1	0.28
Willie Cauley-Stein	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	3	1	13.2	14.9	-1.71	16.0	14.8	1.21
Josh Richardson	82	82	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	6	-5	14.7	12.0	2.68	15.7	14.3	1.35
Dorian Finney-Smith	75	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	8	-9	14.6	12.8	1.85	15.1	15.9	-0.70
Jalen Brunson	39	38	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	-1	9	13.4	14.5	-1.08	15.2	15.5	-0.25
Dwight Powell	21	20	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.07	3	4	-1	15.1	13.8	1.27	14.7	15.5	-0.76
Tim Hardaway Jr.	49	52	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.08	3	4	-1	13.9	14.3	-0.40	15.7	15.1	0.62
Boban Marjanovic	32	32	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	7	-7	14.8	13.7	1.09	15.1	15.5	-0.44
Josh Green	6	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	11	-15	11.0	14.3	-3.25	13.0	15.5	-2.53
James Johnson	19	20	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	15	-23	13.8	14.1	-0.28	15.4	15.4	0.10

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	58	58	0.61	-1.11	1.71	0.46	5	-12	17	15.3	15.5	-0.20	14.4	13.6	0.81
Isaiah Hartenstein	12	11	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-13	19	12.3	15.7	-3.42	16.1	13.8	2.25
Monte Morris	50	49	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-10	13	14.8	15.8	-1.02	14.8	13.5	1.32
JaMychal Green	38	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-5	3	14.7	15.7	-0.98	14.1	14.1	-0.04
Gary Harris	71	72	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	15.1	15.9	-0.88	14.0	14.2	-0.26
Nikola Jokic	82	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	-1	-5	15.9	13.8	2.01	13.9	14.8	-0.90
Will Barton	69	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	3	-13	15.3	15.4	-0.10	14.4	13.4	1.05
Jamal Murray	95	94	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.34	-10	3	-13	15.6	13.4	2.26	13.7	16.4	-2.62
PJ Dozier	55	52	-0.89	0.39	-1.27	-0.71	-6	-1	-5	16.0	14.7	1.32	13.3	14.8	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.38,0.54,0.34,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.3,0.43,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 104, CHA 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	89.8%
CHA 104, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.75,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.61,0.46,0.32,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.16,0	89.4%
MIL 113, CHH 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.58,0.5,0.31,0.55,0.57,0.04,0	89.2%