NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	119		Excitement	9.6 [94]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +27.0%
Houston Rockets	122		Comeback	7.0 [246]		LVP	Marvin Bagley III (SAC): -22.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.09	0.03	14	71%	0.25	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Tyrese Haliburton	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16	0.02	0.12	-0.02	9	55%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Richaun Holmes	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05,0.13	0.15	-0.00	0.01	13	79%	0.25	1	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	73%	0.08	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.03
Hassan Whiteside	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,-0.01,-0.08	0.03	-0.13	-0.03	18	53%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	23	42%	-0.02	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Marvin Bagley III	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	0.01	9	20%	-0.12	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,0.09,0.02,0.1,0.27	0.27	-0.00	0.26	-0.01	24	56%	0.45	6	-0.18	11	82%	0.11
Christian Wood	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.09	0.02	14	66%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.00	12	65%	0.23	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Danuel House Jr.	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.02	6	92%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	2	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06
John Wall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	20	50%	0.05	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	26.9	14.8	25.4	2.5	44.2	143.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +27.9%

HOU +20.4%

HOU +6.9%

SAC -6.4%

HOU +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	HOU	NBA	SAC	HOU	NBA
this game	13.9	13.0	14.4	111.2	114.0	111.3
season	14.0	14.1		112.2	106.2
opponent	14.0	14.4		113.9	115.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.3	13.9	15.4	13.3	13.9
HOU	13.3	13.3	13.4	12.0	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nemanja Bjelica	33	34	0.45	-0.95	1.40	0.16	10	-13	23	14.9	13.5	1.45	13.4	12.8	0.67
Cory Joseph	48	49	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.19	0	-3	3	14.6	13.4	1.29	13.6	12.5	1.05
Marvin Bagley III	58	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	0	-3	13.8	14.0	-0.20	13.3	12.6	0.68
Tyrese Haliburton	60	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	1	-5	13.7	14.2	-0.42	12.6	13.5	-0.94
Harrison Barnes	82	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.52	-3	0	-3	13.9	14.0	-0.03	13.0	13.0	-0.02
De'Aaron Fox	79	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	0	-3	13.6	14.7	-1.10	12.9	13.3	-0.40
Richaun Holmes	81	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.58	-2	-1	-1	13.9	14.1	-0.24	13.0	12.9	0.13
Buddy Hield	87	86	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.41	-9	6	-15	13.7	14.8	-1.13	12.6	14.5	-1.86

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Wood	71	71	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.48	13	-10	23	13.1	12.8	0.26	13.9	14.0	-0.10
James Harden	85	84	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.59	8	-5	13	13.3	11.6	1.69	14.0	13.7	0.25
P.J. Tucker	72	72	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.53	4	-1	5	12.6	13.8	-1.17	14.3	13.3	1.01
Eric Gordon	59	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	-1	5	12.8	13.2	-0.34	13.4	14.6	-1.14
John Wall	83	84	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	7	-11	12.5	14.7	-2.23	13.8	14.4	-0.58
Danuel House Jr.	61	62	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	-4	11	12.6	13.5	-0.83	14.8	12.7	2.07
DeMarcus Cousins	30	30	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.06	-7	10	-17	13.8	12.6	1.18	13.7	14.0	-0.33
Sterling Brown	27	26	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.12	-6	9	-15	14.4	12.5	1.86	13.3	14.1	-0.83
Jae'Sean Tate	47	46	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.19	-4	7	-11	13.0	13.0	0.03	13.6	14.2	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.72,0.54,0.57,0.33,0.29,0.15,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.54,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 104, MEM 111	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.56,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.73,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.27,0.47,0.45,0.78,0.91,1	90.5%
NYK 105, IND 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.96,1	90.2%
MIN 102, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.9,1	90.1%