NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	116		Excitement	7.1 [391]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +23.7%
Indiana Pacers	111		Comeback	21.6 [71]		LVP	Daniel Theis (BOS): -11.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.24	0.05	0.17	-0.01	17	61%	0.34	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.06
Tristan Thompson	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.04	0.01	7	78%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Marcus Smart	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	10	57%	0.09	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	13	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.06
Robert Williams III	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	53%	0.06	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Daniel Theis	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	25%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.00	9	73%	0.16	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	18	63%	0.17	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Warren	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.03	15	59%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.09	-0.00	9	67%	0.11	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	24.4	14.8	29.4	2.4	33.6	131.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +0.2%

BOS +18.5%

BOS +13.1%

BOS +13.6%

BOS +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	14.6	14.0	14.4	114.9	109.9	111.3
season	14.5	13.6		112.8	111.5
opponent	14.4	14.5		111.2	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.4	17.6	14.0	13.7	14.6
IND	14.3	15.1	13.7	13.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	86	86	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.23	19	-14	33	14.2	16.5	-2.23	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Tristan Thompson	57	56	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	1	3	15.2	13.7	1.52	13.4	14.7	-1.29
Payton Pritchard	55	54	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	2	1	15.8	13.1	2.71	13.7	14.3	-0.61
Jeff Teague	40	41	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	-4	13	14.2	14.8	-0.64	14.6	13.5	1.11
Javonte Green	42	42	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	2	1	15.4	14.0	1.40	15.1	13.1	1.96
Robert Williams III	22	24	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	-5	15	13.1	15.0	-1.83	14.4	13.8	0.61
Jaylen Brown	73	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	6	-7	14.1	15.7	-1.64	13.6	14.9	-1.28
Marcus Smart	67	67	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	9	-13	14.5	14.6	-0.08	13.9	14.0	-0.12
Daniel Theis	52	50	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.03	-8	13	-21	14.1	15.1	-1.00	13.7	14.2	-0.42
Grant Williams	11	11	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.04	-10	15	-25	14.2	14.6	-0.43	14.3	13.9	0.36

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	40	39	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.23	9	-14	23	14.5	13.6	0.91	15.8	13.8	2.05
Myles Turner	70	68	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-11	17	13.1	15.8	-2.63	14.3	15.0	-0.69
Victor Oladipo	72	73	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-10	15	14.0	13.9	0.08	14.6	14.6	-0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	73	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-5	5	14.0	13.9	0.03	14.5	14.7	-0.21
T.J. McConnell	28	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	0	-5	13.9	14.0	-0.03	14.7	14.5	0.21
Justin Holiday	54	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	0	-5	14.0	13.9	0.03	13.9	15.3	-1.36
Aaron Holiday	30	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	3	-11	14.2	13.9	0.31	14.3	14.7	-0.31
T.J. Warren	61	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	7	-19	13.9	14.0	-0.12	14.9	14.0	0.86
Domantas Sabonis	77	77	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.38	-15	10	-25	14.3	12.7	1.57	14.4	15.1	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.81,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.4,0.29,0.22,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.84,0.8,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	91.2%
WAS 90, MIN 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0	91.1%
ATL 96, PHX 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.64,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	90.8%