NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	124		Excitement	8.0 [268]		MVP	Coby White (CHI): +45.4%
Chicago Bulls	122		Comeback	1.9 [705]		LVP	Zach LaVine (CHI): -8.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.27	0.03	0.22	-0.03	15	53%	0.29	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0.24	0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.08	-0.02	16	67%	0.24	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.02
Dennis Schroder	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.09	0.12	0.01	12	78%	0.36	4	-0.16	3	100%	0.04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.04	0.07	-0.03	11	62%	0.18	3	-0.04	12	75%	0.00
Steven Adams	0.14	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	8	73%	0.22	1	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Terrance Ferguson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.01	5	92%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Abdel Nader	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Luguentz Dort	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Coby White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45	0.45	0.27	0.21	0.03	21	78%	0.47	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.13	0.01	8	50%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	9	58%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adam Mokoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.01	6	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	10	45%	0.02	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Zach LaVine	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.13,-0.02,-0.08	-0.08	0.09	-0.17	-0.00	35	56%	0.15	5	-0.24	3	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.8	27.2	15.3	26.6	1.8	38.0	138.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +30.8%

OKC +24.0%

CHI -10.5%

CHI -0.7%

OKC +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	CHI	NBA	OKC	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	15.6	14.2	129.2	125.8	109.6
season	14.3	14.1		108.8	105.3
opponent	14.4	14.5		108.2	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.7	11.3	17.3	13.2	14.3
CHI	15.6	17.0	13.5	16.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	60	63	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-9	20	12.3	17.6	-5.34	15.6	15.5	0.06
Chris Paul	71	72	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.12	16	-14	30	13.4	16.7	-3.26	16.0	14.3	1.73
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	67	69	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.60	-1	3	-4	14.8	13.0	1.82	15.3	16.2	-0.86
Danilo Gallinari	65	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.62	-6	8	-14	14.8	13.1	1.69	15.0	16.8	-1.80
Dennis Schroder	67	66	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.62	-7	9	-16	13.7	15.6	-1.84	14.9	17.0	-2.11
Abdel Nader	31	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.17	8	-6	14	13.1	14.8	-1.69	16.8	15.0	1.80
Luguentz Dort	48	48	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.15	-3	5	-8	15.6	13.0	2.62	15.8	15.4	0.40
Terrance Ferguson	35	36	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.16	1	1	0	14.2	14.3	-0.11	16.1	15.2	0.87
Nerlens Noel	36	34	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.11	-9	11	-20	17.6	12.3	5.34	15.5	15.6	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	33	31	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.03	7	-9	16	13.1	16.8	-3.71	13.4	14.7	-1.31
Shaquille Harrison	43	44	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-4	6	16.0	15.2	0.86	13.2	15.2	-1.93
Adam Mokoka	39	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	2	-6	15.7	15.5	0.17	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Ryan Arcidiacono	33	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	7	-16	16.5	15.1	1.39	16.7	13.1	3.58
Coby White	70	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.67	15	-17	32	14.6	18.0	-3.32	13.4	16.5	-3.11
Zach LaVine	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.48	3	-5	8	15.2	17.3	-2.11	14.7	12.5	2.18
Thaddeus Young	60	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.45	-2	0	-2	15.5	15.6	-0.04	14.6	13.7	0.97
Cristiano Felicio	62	62	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.49	-5	3	-8	16.8	13.3	3.48	14.9	13.1	1.83
Tomas Satoransky	67	64	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.27	-17	15	-32	16.3	14.0	2.22	14.2	14.4	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.31,0.33,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.66,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 94, MIN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.66,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	90.4%
PHX 110, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.37,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.59,0.46,0.32,0.55,0.55,0.26,0	90.3%
LAL 104, SEA 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.09,0	89.7%