NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	100		Excitement	1.9 [433]		MVP	Jordan Clarkson (UTA): +16.7%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	3.6 [331]		LVP	Donovan Mitchell (UTA): -28.5%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Clarkson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17	0.24	0.18	0.25	22	76%	0.23	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Georges Niang	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.03	14	60%	0.17	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Rudy Gobert	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	10	81%	0.18	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.01
Joe Ingles	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	-0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.29,-0.29,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29	-0.22	-0.07	-0.00	12	15%	-0.17	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.09	0.02	10	65%	0.15	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.08	0.02	19	64%	0.21	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	10	59%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.02	11	55%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	5	43%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	16	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.5	25.6	16.2	24.4	2.8	42.0	139.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +3.4%

DEN +15.4%

DEN +9.7%

DEN +22.4%

UTA -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	14.2	105.3	111.6	109.6
season	14.9	15.0		112.1	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.2		110.7	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.4	15.6	14.8	13.8	15.4
DEN	14.5	13.2	15.2	16.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Royce O'Neale	50	48	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-2	-2	16.6	14.0	2.60	15.2	14.6	0.57
Rudy Gobert	74	74	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.13	3	-9	12	15.4	15.5	-0.11	15.4	13.3	2.05
Joe Ingles	68	67	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-7	8	15.4	15.4	0.03	15.3	14.1	1.16
Bojan Bogdanovic	69	68	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-6	6	15.8	14.3	1.49	15.5	13.4	2.07
Emmanuel Mudiay	33	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-4	2	15.9	15.1	0.80	13.7	15.6	-1.84
Georges Niang	30	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	2	-10	14.6	15.8	-1.20	13.8	15.5	-1.63
Ed Davis	21	21	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	3	-12	15.5	15.4	0.11	13.3	15.4	-2.05
Jordan Clarkson	62	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.43	-2	-4	2	14.7	16.7	-2.05	14.6	15.6	-1.07
Donovan Mitchell	68	68	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.32	-9	3	-12	14.8	16.8	-1.99	15.2	14.2	1.04

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Dozier	30	29	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-7	20	13.8	15.4	-1.65	15.8	15.2	0.53
Torrey Craig	70	71	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	0	6	15.2	14.1	1.15	15.4	15.5	-0.15
Michael Porter Jr.	50	50	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-2	10	13.9	16.0	-2.12	16.0	14.7	1.29
Malik Beasley	49	47	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.12	12	-6	18	13.4	16.6	-3.22	16.1	14.7	1.33
Jerami Grant	66	66	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.02	12	-6	18	15.4	13.8	1.58	15.8	14.6	1.21
Nikola Jokic	68	70	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	10	-14	15.7	12.9	2.79	14.7	17.2	-2.46
Will Barton	72	71	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	11	-16	15.3	13.7	1.57	15.1	16.2	-1.04
Jarred Vanderbilt	8	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	10	-14	14.9	14.9	-0.06	14.1	15.5	-1.35
Monte Morris	62	64	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	14	-22	15.4	14.1	1.23	15.0	16.1	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.35,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.4,0.49,0.74,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 106, IND 122	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.14,0.24,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.66,0.82,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
WAS 78, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.97,1,1	93.0%
MIA 95, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.6,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.5%